Is the line the most significant variable in sports handicapping? You might be surprised by the answer:)

Things have slowed down a bit in the sports handicapping sports world. Its been plays on the weekend along with a smattering of plays during the week.

Yesterday I had a rare 1 unit play in the NBA on Brooklyn +8 and they won the game outright.

So far I have sent out 2 one unit plays for this weekend.

I received an email last night that I want to share:

“Hey Rick,

I was curious about something. I received a text saying there was only one possible NBA play being Toronto. This was followed by another text a few minutes later with Brooklyn as a full 1-Unit play. From what I could tell the line didn’t move at all and was wondering what type of activity would take a game from not having a chance at a play to a 1-Unit so quickly?


My response:

“Actually, it was almost an hour later. Might have seemed within minutes:)

The line is only part of the equation. And really not the most significant part. What the makeup of the betting is and how the line moves or not moves is much more significant.

There are a lot of moving parts to how I handicap these games. An hour before I sent out my email not mentioning Brooklyn, things changed. That is why I typically monitor all the numbers until I am done for the day. You never know really how things are going to change.

In addition, except for the NFL and some Major College games, most of the volume of betting on these games is very light. So movement happens much more than in the NFL.”

Let me add that my comment about the line being the least significant part of the equation is based on my assumption that the books are setting these lines in a logical straightforward manner. If they ever started putting lines out that were random and not related to performance my techniques would probably fail.

Been a lull in questions, now that things have slowed up a bit, now is the time to ask. College hoops will be here soon, and then there won’t be time for much else.

Good Luck Today


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