Sunday we went 1-1 on our plays winning with St Johns +5.5 and losing with the St Louis Blues in the NHL. Our setups also went 1-1 winning with NC Greensboro -2 and losing on the under in the Iowa game.
Also my setups in the NFL went 1-1. Winning with Denver and losing with Arizona. I indicated if I could get denver +3.5 it would be a play. It was not widely available but there were a few spots. I could not get it though. So not an official play.
Things are slowing up tonight. But looking them over there should be several plays tonight unless things change.
I have had several emails about baseball. I plan on putting out baseball plays and I anticipate they will follow the NHL in being a positive ev sport with the rest of the sports. I made very similar changes in baseball. I know I sound a bit delusional saying that:) But we will see!
Subscribers I will send out plays shortly before game time. I sent out this morning my initial impression on the Superbowl. If you did not get that just drop me an email. I know twitter has had some difficulties the last two days. But I think that is behind us. Of course it picked Saturday the busiest day of the week to act up. Never fails.
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Well…back to work!
After a 2 day rally at the end of last week the market is off about .5% 1 hour before the open. Things to look at today are what the rebound off the open looks like. There are two rules of thought right now. One is we are heading down to test the lows again very soon and it is going to be a violent move to the downside. 2. We have made the lows and its clear sailing from here with a few bumps.
So that is what you get from reading about predictions. What you need to understand is no one has the ability to predict what the market is going to do. The best experts can do is predict when the crowd has created an oversold or an overbought situation. And even then the timing of taking advantage of that is tricky.
Right now we not over sold and I expect a pull back. Thats about all I can predict right now. I think that if #1 is correct we see another rally taking out the highs that will result in a bull trap where everyone is on the wrong side. Should be interesting to say the least.
The one wildcard is the Fed. The market right now is anticipating that the Fed is going to back off on the rate hikes and the rhetoric. Myself I think that is wishful thinking. It would require a complete change in direction by the Fed which I think they are not capable of doing. They have set in motion what could occur to be one of the worst declines we have seen in the markets. If they continue with the rate hikes the market will surely turn into a bear market.
Now that is my opinion. And the trade would be to position yourself short before the next time the Fed opens its mouth. It could be a windfall trade. So I will try to apprise you of when to be on the lookout. But you need to do a little research yourself as to when Fed Speak is coming. Myself I lightened up on my mean reversion trades on Friday and expect to do some more lightening up early this week.
Its going to be a long year and there will be plenty of time to recover the carnage from the first 2 weeks:) But its going to be a very tricky year for the long side of the market. There is just too much going on that has explosive repercussions ( no pun intended) Everywhere you look including the U.S. there is unrest. Everywhere you look the world is at war. It has the potential to spiral out of control if it hasnt already.
This is no time to get stubborn. The backdrop is much much different then what we have been exposed to over the last years. The tailwind is gone.
I will see what I can do to help you navigate through this. We will see:)
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