Is the risk of a government shutdown factored into the Stock Market? The Odds?

The Stock Market is up slightly 30 min before the open. Of note, Most of what I look at is in the green this morning except for USO which is off .5%.

Its still all about the tax bill our of the Senate this week. And the betting odds have stayed steady at 2 to 1 in favor of a vote by year end. I am still saying take the 2 to 1:)

My system trade on GLD is hanging in there. Also we had a day trade yesterday that showed a .75% gain in an hour or so.

These trades so far have had a very high win%. I think I have only had one loss and a small one. I will go back and review my trades and come up with an exact number tomorrow.

I have found the best time to take this trade is the first 30 min of trading. In addition, once we get past the first hour or two things settle down to where we often see a pullback if we get a nice run on the trade.

I have received some emails regarding the high amount invested to obtain .75%.  First .75% in an hour is not bad:)  That is annualized an insane number. Now most of my day trades are in the 35 to 40,000 dollar range. They are easy to manage and my risk is rather small on these trades.

If you do not have 40,000 laying around you can use options. However the spreads are high as are the commissions. That is offset somewhat by the leverage but the trades are much trickier. The equity trades are rather simple if you pick a liquid stock.

My cost is 4 dollars round trip regardless of the size of my trade. Most traders do not get that but you should be paying no more than 10.00 round turn.

The key is to find several stocks that are ripe for a rebound. I usually have 3 or 4 in mind.

Also, I am watching a few stocks for bottom reversal trades: TUR, WEAT and CORN.

We tried the last two a month ago, and were greated with a small loss in both. When these turn the profits could be massive. Same with TUR.

The trick is figuring out he trigger. Its not that simple as it requires a balancing between volumne, and a breakout of the 20 day MA. Throw an RSI divergence into the mix along with a nice bottoming action and you have something to consider!

Do not forget we have coming up in December a DACA showdown with the potential for a shutdown. You can count on both sides playing chicken to the last second on this one. And considering the polarizing issue a shutdown is not out of the question.  Lets say 3 to 1 against for now.

This will be a market mover to say the least if they play chicken with this issue.

Come join me this morning at the open for my comments and a day trade if the conditions are right.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Skype: riccja

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