It was looking great early Monday morning (As long as you were long) but things changed and the stock market plunged.
This morning we are gaping down in all indexes around 1/4%.
The only green on my screen is the energy sector. Everything else including TLT is in the red.
This to me is a slightly negative premarket if not neutral premarket.
We are at a point in the stock market where historically the returns have been dismal. There are many headwinds at play here. Too numerous to count now.
So it was no surprise that the stock market did not hold its gains from Monday morning. I suspect we are in for some tough sledding if you are long the markets. At best, it appears that you can tread water for awhile. At worst, a correction substantially lower.
Right now, I will be looking for mean reversion trades. But, I will have more stringent requirements for entry due to the conditions.
Also aside from the headwinds seasonally and technically the stock market is facing the political and monetary environment is not doing the market any favors.
Political dysfunction is not easing up. If anything it is getting worse. The nomination for the head of the VA is a good example. Jackson a physician that served 3 presidents as their white house physician was personally trashed in the Senate. Resulting in his withdrawing his nomination.
It used to be the Senate was the voice of reason in the U.S. while the house was where the turmoil was. It seems to have reversed.
In addition, Kanye West came out in support of the President and is not being threatened with physical harm! Now I do not care whether your a democrat or a republican this has to concern you.
And then we have the White House Correspondent dinner. Another indication of the dysfunction in D.C.
It seems day to day we keep plunging to new lows on the tolerance level. What the low actually remains to be seen.
All this and we have not even seen the IG report or the Special Counsel report. Those two might actually be the breaking point.
I suspect the ramifications of both will have a substantial effect on how far we go on the dysfunction scale.
There is good news, however. N. Korea seems to be working out better than anyone expected. In addition, Syria and Iran are going to reach a head soon with the discovery that Iran is in violation of the agreement.
In addition, we have an opportunity for a nice bounce if there is some resolution of the trade dispute with China. My guess is it all gets worked out and the market rebounds sharply for a few days. The timing, however, will be the key.
Keep a watch on the U.S. delegation to China. I would be looking to go long (especially if we are oversold) toward the end of the meeting.
All this should indicate that the stock market is going to have headwinds for some time.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
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