Is this the start of the Holiday Rally in the Stock Market?

It looks like the late rally of yesterday is going to get some follow through this morning.  The stock market is gaping up almost 1/2% an hour before the open.

Of note, Financials, IBB, Tur, UNG, and USO are all strong, while Metals are slightly down as is TLT.

This is a pretty strong premarket and I would not be surprised to see a trend day up today. This is the best time of year if that is possible after this last year. But seasonally we are in the strongest time of the year. The news is quieting down a bit, although I do not expect that to last for long.

Perhaps the politicians will give the people a break until after the 1st of the year before they go on their way to try to remove the President.  You know, in the holiday spirit:)

The Alabama special election is coming up soon and to me, it has very important implications. The polls show Moore to be about 5 pts in the lead right now.  The odds are 3 to 1 in favor of Moore.  My guess is that is understated a bit, as I put the odds at closer to 5 to 1 in favor of Moore.

If however, Moore loses that will be an ominous sign for 2018. If he wins in a landslide then my assumption about 2018 will be reinforced.

For those just reading this for the first time, my assumption is that its the establishment politicians on both sides that are going to take a beating in 2018. The benefit will go to the non-establishment Republicans.  That is the assumption I am working under when I put out my odds.

I know there are complicating factors here, but in this political environment, I do not expect an upset in Alabama.

This is all very significant for the markets, as it is the deregulation more than anything else that is fueling this market rally. Even more than the tax bill.

Our TUR trade is following through this morning, QQQ is looking great up 3/4%  premarket. I will exit QQQ today as its a mean reversion trade with the exit signal hit at the close yesterday.

XNCR should get a boost today with IBB up almost .5% premarket. As I said, I am planning on making money with this trade:)

I will not be around this morning for comments or day trades on Twitter. Too much going on this morning. Although you can get ahold of me on skype. My username there is riccja if you have any questions.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Skype: riccja

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