It was Turkey yesterday and now its China today in Stock Market moving news. Gap fill, consolidation, or trend day?

Almost the exact opposite of the early stock market from yesterday.
 
The stock market indexes are +.5% to almost 1% for the Nasdaq.
 
Most everything is green except for TLT which is red.
 
That to me is a strongly positive pre-market bias 90 Min before the open.
 
Yesterday was all about Turkey and today is all about China. It looks like trade talks are resuming this month with the chatter now that a trade deal will be obtained before the midterms.
 
To give you an idea of how strong this pre-market is, when was the last time you saw Walmart 8%+ before the open!
 
Commentators keep forgetting the effect these corporate tax cuts are having on earnings. Combine that with the strong economy and it is no wonder this market is difficult to break despite all the negative news daily.
 
I was looking for a mean reversion trade yesterday in SPY but the end of the day rebound to me out of my parameters for that trade:(
 
This has happened more than I can recall over the last few months. The reversal has happened before the mean reversion trigger. So what is one to do on these trades?
 
I plan is to stick with what has worked with mean reversion trading. This method is volatile enough with no stops. No reason to start cutting corners to manufacture trades. We will get our chances:)
 
I am well positioned not to take advantage of this rebound. I have a number of short-term swings many of which took a beating yesterday but I suspect will recover nicely today.
 
I posted some intraday trading ideas for @nq and @es yesterday to give you an idea if you’re interested in taking a stab at futures trading.
 
Of all the trading, futures is the most challenging. You are up against traders with almost unlimited capital that is trading at terminals that have virtually 0 lag time. In addition, they are using some of the most sophisticated algorithms available.
 
Sitting at home and watching the charts and trying to consistently pick off profits is almost as tough as grinding out profits a low stake limit hold-em in the casinos!
 
I have a tight schedule this morning as I have to leave for a while around 8:00. So I will only be around for a short time after the open.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

ITS ALL ABOUT TURKEY FOR THE STOCK MARKET THIS MORNING! SOME THOUGHTS HERE.

The Stock Market is hovering around the 0 mark an hour before the open.
 
Of note, Metals are off sharply, financials and oil are negative while TLT is unchanged.
 
To me, this is a negative bias for the markets in the premarket. I would not be surprised to see a dip off the open, however, there is some news that might keep the market on the plus side.
 
Overnight the stock market has sharply lower as a result of the Lira plunge spillover into other markets.
 
Early this morning rumors are out that the Pastor under house arrest will be let free two days from now. Once that happens, I expect the Lira will rebound sharply and the tough rhetoric out of D.C. will subside.
 
Two days is a long time, however, and tensions are high on this one. If I were the Pastor I would be on the first plane out of Turkey with his family back to the U.S. But that is just me:)
 
With all this volatility I still think we break out on the upside soon. There are just too many positive things happening in the U.S. economy to hold the markets back right now. In addition, the White House is putting pressure on the Fed to keep rates steady rather than raising them.
 
Not much new other than Turkey over the weekend. As an aside, the White House has put a deadline on an interview with Mueller. It’s a short on, sept 1st. If we see a subpoena out of the special counsel’s office I expect the market to react.
 
What that means is a trip to the Supreme Court. And with the Court now 4-4 its no lock that the White House will prevail. Which also adds another variable to the Cavenaugh hearings. As a confirmation of Cavenaugh would almost guarantee the White House prevailing in the Supreme Court.
 
That is why I have the opinion that Cavenaugh is not the lock of being confirmed that the widely accepted opinions say he will be.
 
There is just too much invested in the President being removed, on both sides of the aisle to give up the edge of a 4-4 Supreme Court on the issue of a Presidential subpoena
 
But there is always a chance that my view has become jaundiced by the political dysfunction we are seeing in D.C. Perhaps the Republicans feel it is more important to have a 5-4 majority in the Supreme Court than a 4-4 Court on the issue of a Presidential Supoena.
 
We will find out soon enough. Should be interesting, and should provide some opportunity on some sharp downswings in the stock market.
 
While I have been typing this the stock market is still rebounding with the Nasdaq up almost 1/4%. I still feel the other considerations give a negative premarket. A gap fill might be a decent risk reward here.
 
Those are my thoughts on a Monday morning. I should be around on my private twitter feed this morning for some comments and perhaps a swing trade. Its free so come to join us at @rickjswings!
 

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

By 

Posted 

ANOTHER NEUTRAL PREMARKET FOR THE STOCK MARKET THIS MORNING. WHICH WAY WILL IT BREAK OUT?

Another flat premarket for the stock market this morning finding all indexes around even.
 
Of note, Metals, and Oil slightly higher. financials slightly lower.
 
A neutral premarket to me.
The China stock market is up strongly this morning. Some of the news is that a trade deal is in the works. Myself, I think its more likely due to the quantitative easing they just announced. If there was a trade deal in the works the U.S. market would be +200 right now:)
 
Not much in the way of new news. A few tidbits have new sanctions on China, Turkey currency getting hit as sanctions there are helping the lira nosedive. And all for holding an innocent U.S. Pastor.
 
Then we have Canada and the Saudis at each other’s throat.
 
While Iran keeps becoming more chaotic. Their currency has nosedived, inflation is rampant, and demonstrations are getting worse.
 
You know things are bad there when it is reporting Iran might agree to talk to Trump:)
 
Meanwhile, at home, there is no agreement on the terms of the special counsel interview with the President.
 
Some think that a subpoena is in the works to attempt to get the President in front of a Grand Jury. Myself, I do not think that will ever happen. There is no question that would trigger not only a challenge to the subpoena heading up to the Supreme Court but also trigger a challenge to the constitutionality of the special counsel.
 
I doubt that Mueller would be stupid enough to trigger that, as my guess is he may well lose on both issues in the Supreme Court.
 
So chaos continues both globally and at home. The good news is this President does he best in the midst of chaos. The bad news is it is going to make it tricky for swing trading this market.
 
I know it has been pretty easy for a while now. But even with this market strength, there has been a lot of chop. Just not a large downswing.
 
As long as the Fed does not lose its mind and Mueller does not act like a savior to rid the U.S. from Trump at all costs the market is safe for now.
 
But both of those are not out of the realm of the imagination!
 
I was watching NFLX for a trade yesterday but it never got to my level where I needed it to be to consider a trade.
 
Typically I like to watch the open and see where my basket of stocks are that I like to take short-term swings in. I have my levels predetermined so I can tell what is likely to be a consideration within 10 to 15 min after the open.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

By 

Posted 

CHINA ANNOUNCES MORE TARIFFS! WILL THIS FINALLY TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE STOCK MARKET?

Except for the Nasdaq the Stock Market is hovering around the 0 line. The Nasdaq is off .15% an hour before the open.
 
Of note, Oils is taking a hit this morning while everything else is breakeven.
 
slightly negative bias for the stock market an hour before the open.
 
The Stock Market remains strong with corporate earnings at record levels. China is showing no signs of back off in the trade fight with the U.S. announcing more tariffs to start on August 23rd.
 
It’s now about time for someone to figure out a win-win compromise with China. Especially with the midterms coming up. I doubt the Republicans will fare very well if this escalates much farther.
 
The President is a non-politician however, is doing what in his mind he feels is the correct approach. In my judgment, this will erode his support, especially among the farm belt.
 
In what already shows to be a tight congressional battle in November, the Republicans do not need the headwind of the effect of tariffs.
 
Perhaps the President has a bird he is going to pull out of a hat on this one. But so far, he is keeping it under the wraps.
 
Myself, I am not sure how this is going to play out. The Republicans won a very tight Congressional race in Ohio last night. Some say higher than it should have been as Trump took that area by 11 pts in 2016. But, they fail to mention that Obama took it by 11 points previously.
 
What this all means is uncertainty heading into November. There is no need repeating all the things that might derail this stock market but there are plenty.
 
Right now Tariffs are at the top of the list.
 
Now, I say this and the stock market just keeps going up:) Interesting, but that is the way the stock market works. Very counterintuitive.
 
An interesting day if you had TSLA yesterday. They halted trading as a result of some tweets by Musk that he was going private at 420 a share. An hour or so later the stock started trading and had a nice bump.
 
As it turns out it was even more interesting for me as I had some calls in TSLA that I had bought for 6.00 a share. Once the trading started I sold them for 16.00 a share. These trades do not come around very often:)
 
Short term the stock market is overbought. Perhaps we get some consolidation for the next few days before another push to the upside. Remember though this is not going to last forever.
 
Sooner or later this market will reverse. As long as this White House is in control I think the market is safe. But after that, all bets are off.
 
The President has no problem spending money, reducing taxes further, spending on infrastructure including the wall.
 
In addition, He continues to reduce regulations. I doubt we will see a more pro stock market president for a long time.
 
If I have time this morning I will post some trades. But I have some family matters to take care of which is going to prevent me from being in front of the computer most of the morning. I have to leave for a while after 8:00.
 

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

By 

Posted 

THE STOCK MARKET INDEXES ARE UP ACROSS THE BOARD THIS MORNING! WILL IT HOLD TODAY?

The Stock Market is up across the board 30 min before the open with all indexes + about 1/4%.
 
TLT is down, with most everything else in the green. Leading the way oil which is over 1%.
 
This to me is a very strong premarket bias. I would not be surprised to see follow through on the upside today.
 
The news is pretty much the same, but the bottom line is economic growth is winning out over all the potential market killing news out there.
 
The story is that the markets do not seem to care about the tariffs. I would rather believe what the market is telling me than what I am hearing from the politicians and the media. The market is much more reliable:)
 
One interesting news item today is the special election in Ohio. The odds are 3 to 2 in favor of the Republican. In addition, this was an area that Trump won handily in 2016. If the Dems happen to win this seat it may well be a bell weather for November.
 
I am not much for the idea of bellwethers but if there was ever on this would be it. These Congressional seats tend to be localized so there are many other considerations then what you are seeing in the media.
 
At any event, should be interesting, and something to pay attention to.
 
One other idea this morning that I started thinking about is that if you have social media as a significant portion of your portfolio you might want to reconsider.
 
Myself, any companies that get involved with the “SJW” movement are eliminated from my portfolio.
 
Twitter and Facebook are top on the list. But there are others out there.
 
It’s not that I do not have some sympathy for the “SJW” movement but from an investment standpoint, there are too many risks with these companies.
 
From tightening federal regulations on them to almost 1/2 the population souring on them for political reasons is enough to take them out of any long-term portfolio.
 
Afterall, don’t you want a CEO that maximizes profits? Especially if your retirement depends on it!
 
I will be looking for some swings today. The environment looks pretty good to me right now. We tried two trades in the Dow futures yesterday morning and took small losses. The 3rd breakout would have been a monster trade but I usually give it up after two losing trades in a row:(
 
I should be around this morning for some early comments and perhaps a few trades so come to join me @rickjswings. It’s free:)
 

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

page 1 of 223

Leave a Comment

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text. captcha txt
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!
Rickj's Handicapping Picks
Assign a menu in the Left Menu options.
Assign a menu in the Right Menu options.