The Stock Market is slightly up premarket. Of note, financials, metals lead the way while the rest are hovering around the 0 line.
The news today is all about Alabama. Does the nonestablishment Moore win despite the allegations of sexual misconduct against him?
I could make an argument on either side of the issue as to the validity of the allegations. Of course, typically, I can do that on any issue being a long time trial Attorney.
The issue as I see it is what standard are you going to apply as to when allegations are sufficient enough to derail a political run. Its pretty well established that the idea of innocent until proven guilty is a commonly accepted principle for a reason.
And that should apply regardless of who allegations are against. The idea of a lynch mob mentality based upon allegations has the potential to get out of hand. You can see that with the various allegations against Democrats that are being forced to withdraw, prior to an ethics counsel investigation.
Franken is a good example. When you start with the lynch mob mentality no one is safe. Franken should of been allowed a full investigation before any decisions regarding him serving in the Senate.
Now I bring this up as if this does get out of control it has the potential to affect the markets. Afterall, neither side can afford losing members in Congress. Any change can and will affect legislation on a variety of issues.
In addition, it provides an environment of uncertainty.
Now, Alabama. The Fox News poll yesterday came out with Jones 10 points ahead. That is Fox news the news company that everyone knows is biased toward the right!
My prediction, Moore in an easy win. Might even be bigger than expected by even the most optimistic of prognosticators.
Now, whether my prediction is correct or not, this election is going to be a good test of Trump’s influence and also what is likely to occur in 2018.
If Jones wins easily, it will be a bad sign for the Republicans and Trump. And it would make my predictions on all races in jeopardy as it would be an indication that my assumptions might be incorrect.
Its also going to be a good indicator whether money and last minute attacks still can influence voters. I think not so much anymore. But we will see.
In addition, I also think that if Jones wins the market will react to the downside tomorrow. A gap lower. A Moore win and we get a nice gap higher.
The market rally is in part a result of the deregulation that is occurring and also the idea that lower tax rates for business are right around the corner.
A Jones win puts that agenda in jeopardy.
One other suggestion, no matter which side wins the political spin merchants will be out in force for a day or two. Turn it off no matter which side prevails. There will be nothing of substantive value that will help you in your investing.
I added ILF yesterday as a bottom reversal trade. TUR is also a trade I have now in that category.
GLD is a system trade and XNCR is a mean reversion trade.
I will be around at the open for comments and perhaps a day trade that we can follow together. Take a look at @rickjswings
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks