Its all about tax cuts! What are the odds of a tax cut bill this year?

Its all about tax cuts! What are the odds of a tax cut bill this year?

Markets are off about 1/4% an hour before the open.

Of note Financials are down , TLT is positive, with most everything else around the flat line.

Its all about the tax cut bill. My take is the Republicans have almost 0 chance of getting a bill out of the Senate by the end of the year.

Rand Paul will not be back until after the first of the year, and he was not an automatic yes vote. You can count on McCain and Corker as no votes unless something really strange happens.

Then there are the other never Trumpers that will be doing whatever they can to tank the tax cut bill.

I think the market is coming to the conclusion that there will be no tax cut bill this year. And if not this year reconciliation is finished and they will need 60 votes.

Now, any hint at a bill being passed will propel this market higher. That is what it is going to come down to.

But I do not see a path unless some Democrats get on board. Some think that will happen. But, wishful thinking as far as I see it.

Looking at the odds individual tax cut by end of 2017  4 to 1 against and corporate 3 to 1 against.

Those numbers to me are very optimistic:)

The markets are getting pretty oversold right now and I will be looking for more mean reversion trades pretty soon.

In addition, this is the best environment for day trades if you can catch them right as a rally could be very sharp.

I presently have IBB and XNCR as mean reversion trades. Both are biotech. XNCR had a very nice rally on Monday so perhaps we are going to see finally a rally in the stock. IBB depending on the Breadth today I might add the 2nd half of my mean reversion trade.

UNG may exit this morning if the premarket quotes are accurate as its off almost 1.5% premarket. I also have a system trade in GLD.

This morning I will be looking for some day trades. As the market heads down my basket of stocks get a bit bigger.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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Rickj's Handicapping Picks