Its all about Turkey for the Stock Market this morning! Some thoughts here.

The Stock Market is hovering around the 0 mark an hour before the open.
Of note, Metals are off sharply, financials and oil are negative while TLT is unchanged.
To me, this is a negative bias for the markets in the premarket. I would not be surprised to see a dip off the open, however, there is some news that might keep the market on the plus side.
Overnight the stock market has sharply lower as a result of the Lira plunge spillover into other markets.
Early this morning rumors are out that the Pastor under house arrest will be let free two days from now. Once that happens, I expect the Lira will rebound sharply and the tough rhetoric out of D.C. will subside.
Two days is a long time, however, and tensions are high on this one. If I were the Pastor I would be on the first plane out of Turkey with his family back to the U.S. But that is just me:)
With all this volatility I still think we break out on the upside soon. There are just too many positive things happening in the U.S. economy to hold the markets back right now. In addition, the White House is putting pressure on the Fed to keep rates steady rather than raising them.
Not much new other than Turkey over the weekend. As an aside, the White House has put a deadline on an interview with Mueller. It’s a short on, sept 1st. If we see a subpoena out of the special counsel’s office I expect the market to react.
What that means is a trip to the Supreme Court. And with the Court now 4-4 its no lock that the White House will prevail. Which also adds another variable to the Cavenaugh hearings. As a confirmation of Cavenaugh would almost guarantee the White House prevailing in the Supreme Court.
That is why I have the opinion that Cavenaugh is not the lock of being confirmed that the widely accepted opinions say he will be.
There is just too much invested in the President being removed, on both sides of the aisle to give up the edge of a 4-4 Supreme Court on the issue of a Presidential subpoena
But there is always a chance that my view has become jaundiced by the political dysfunction we are seeing in D.C. Perhaps the Republicans feel it is more important to have a 5-4 majority in the Supreme Court than a 4-4 Court on the issue of a Presidential Supoena.
We will find out soon enough. Should be interesting, and should provide some opportunity on some sharp downswings in the stock market.
While I have been typing this the stock market is still rebounding with the Nasdaq up almost 1/4%. I still feel the other considerations give a negative premarket. A gap fill might be a decent risk reward here.
Those are my thoughts on a Monday morning. I should be around on my private twitter feed this morning for some comments and perhaps a swing trade. Its free so come to join us at @rickjswings!

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Skype: Ricca

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