3:15 Update
An interesting game tonight in the NBA
Boston
Atlanta
Betting is 60% on the road dog Boston with the line staying steady at -6.5 Atlanta. Models show no edge where variable show slight edge to Atlanta. Public betting shows a slight bias toward Atlanta.
The playoffs in the NBA are tricky to handicap as there are many cross currents to consider. For this game however its pretty straight forward and if your handicapping or bias is to be on Boston and take the points you might consider passing on the game. If your handicapping is tilted toward Atlanta you might use this to swing you enough to bet on Atlanta.
My variables while slightly favoring Atlanta are not strong enough to consider betting the game. So I am passing. But with 60% of the betting on the Dog (a red flag for me) and slight variables leaning to Atlanta if I wanted to gamble on the game it would be on Atlanta:) But I typically am not in the gambling mood! So I am passing.
3:00 Update
Monday we had one play and we won it with Arizona +131 9-7. Arizona tied it up the top of the 9th and won in 11 innings. Nice to see we can win the close ones from time to time as our last three wins 3-0 were all extra innings!
It’s going to be a busy night tonight with 3 one unit plays and 1 1/2 unit play. They have all been sent out as all 4 were clear cut as opposed to last night where I had to wait until almost game time.
Now remember you are placing wagers on 4 games and 3.5 units all at once. So for proper money management, I typically reduce my bet size a bit for multiple wagers all at one time. However for keeping score on the April through August guarantee we will be sticking with 1/2 and 1 unit. No sense making it complicated.
There are a few other that could swing into plays but they would have to move a bit. I will keep a watch on things and check back in.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Yesterday morning my short position in XLE was looking sweet. The oil producing companies announced no agreement on output. Oil plunges down almost 6% overnight. A rebound into the open but still off a bit over 2 %. And then…rally….dow and oil leaving both up strong for the day. And my mean reversion trade is now slightly underwater:)
That’s how trading is. The obvious is not quite so obvious, to say the least.
Today we are approaching overbought territory to the degree that it will be time to start considering mean reversions to the short side of the market. Right now the markets are gaping up almost 1/2%. Any kind of rally from here would be very tempting to start shorting. But let’s take it a step at a time.
I am still pretty much flat right now except for a few small oil trades. Today any trades on the long side will be short term. But I am going to start looking for some swing shorts. if they trigger.
If you wish to follow my trades you can at @rickjswings. It’s free for now and might give you some insight into swing trading. And you can always ask if there is something you would like explained.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
