Janet Yellen day! How will the markets react?

3:15 Update

The tough run of the 1/2 unit plays continued on Monday going 1-4. Both NHL 1/2 unit plays lost and the NBA 1/2 unit plays went 1/2.  Compared to my call in the stock market this morning which was spot on the 1/2 unit plays is struggling.

The good news is we have baseball right around the corner and I am looking forward to it. Each day I do more and more to get ready and fine tune for the season. No guarantees of course but I am optimistic.

I received a nice email last night:


I have not been in Las Vegas for a few years now but decided to come in and play some Omaha 8 for the NCAA Tournament. I have to say I looked all over for you as over the last 10+ years you have been a fixture in the Omaha 8 game. At the very least I wanted to say Hi and thank you for the hard work you put into your handicapping. Hopefully, when I come in next time I will run into you. Hope you are doing fine.”

My Response:

“Thanks for the email. I am pretty much retired now from the grind of playing poker every day. When I moved to Las Vegas some 13 years ago my goal was to find out what I missed when I made the decision to stay in law school and not become a professional poker player. It had always been in the back of my mind for the some 40+ years I practiced law. So after retiring from my legal practice and also my business I had the opportunity to discover what I had missed.

I have to say I had some fun times playing poker and met some great people. But playing poker 50 to 60 hours a week to grind out the mid-limit poker games became less and less enjoyable to the degree where I decided it was time to give it up. I was very successful in the games but it was never the money that drove me. It was the enjoyment of the game.

I have written about this many times before and if you’re interested you can read my comments on my poker site. While 90% of the players are great and fun to play with there are a handful that are miserable and as dysfunctional as you will ever run into. I just felt being around those types every day was getting to be too much as their negativity and anti-social behavior started taking its toll even on me. Life is too short to be around miserable people every day:)

But who knows. Maybe next time you’re in town I may get the bug to play a bit again. But so far I have not been bitten to even play one hand again!

Take care”

I always enjoy hearing from players I have met over the years playing poker.

I will have the plays out as always shortly before game time. In addition, I will send an update on the final four soon.


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks


Today Janet Yellen is the center state. Normally it would be easy to figure out what the head of the Fed is going to say. But in this case, it’s pretty much impossible.

At the last meeting she was dovish but then many in the Fed took issue with that as shown by their public pronouncements of rate hikes. So how all this washes out is anyone’s guess. However, we have a gap down of about 1/4% taking place 30 min before liftoff. Typically these events give one an opportunity to fade the news.

Before the event, the market reacts. After the event, the market reacts the other way. This happens so many times it almost considered a reliable pattern. But then you have the caveat. Sometimes the news is either so good or so bad the market just keeps going. Not often but it doesn’t have to happen very often to put a dent in your bankroll.

Myself I lightened up a bit yesterday and took profits on my mean reversion trade on the long side. In addition, I took some profits on a swing trade long. However, I still have several positions. It is a mixed bag of swing longs, long TLT and long oil. Nothing too dramatic.

Today my play is to maybe take a gap trade depending on where the market opens. And then look for the long side. I still think we test the highs. The sentiment is still very much expecting a significant correction. And we all know how that usually goes:)

For those of you taking my 1/2 unit plays (myself included) they have been less than stellar. They will turn around but these swings are taxing, to say the least. But on the good side, they will give you an idea of what to expect come baseball season. Swings like this are very common in baseball. So the idea is get mentally prepared.

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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