January results Analysis, and some observations

We have the first month of the year behind us and we are off to a slow start.

Lets go over the numbers:

NFL: 1/2 Unit plays 1-0 +.5

NHL: 1 unit 4-3 +2.81

1/2 Unit 1-3 -.605

Jan total : +2.05

NCAA BB Sides: 1/2 Unit 23-33 -7.75

1/2 Unit Totals: 8-10-1 -1.5

Jan total: -9.25

NBA: 1 UNIT 5-5 -.5

1/2 Unit 0-1 -.55

So adding that all up we come up with -7.2 Units for the month.

For the sports that are active:

NFL +4.8

NHL -3.11

NCAA BB -9.95

NBA +.25

We finished College football +14.45 Units.

Now, I wish there was some way to eliminate variance from the equation. There is not one person that wagers every day that does not have trouble dealing with it. All it is, is probability theory at work. There is no myserybehind it, as its pretty simple. And it is elementary bell curve and standard deviation stuff.

Now the bigger your EV the less of a standard deviation you are going to have. But remember sports betting is an area that only a small % are successful. The reason being is the edges are small, if you have an edge to begin with.

I have seen some of the best poker players you can imagine, go busted because of their lack of respect for variance. I only wish I could play near as good as some of these players. There minds are razor sharp, their instincts are fine tuned, but in the end for most variance gets them. Now, that does not take into consideration the other leaks they might have:)

So make no mistake, this is not easy money. You are going to have losing streaks that want to make you cry:) And you are going to have winning streaks(like we have had) that make you think you will never lose again.

Its the nature of the beast. Most are not cut out for it. I have been doing this now full time for almost 20 years now. Wagering daily, weathering the ups and downs. To me, I could go through 40 units, and I would only be intellectually curious as to what might be off. I would not be in shock or depressed, more likely I would be amused:)

The key to all of this is to have fun with it. When you stop having fun its time to take a break. I cannot tell you the number of times I stepped down from playing high limit poker to very low limits just to clear my mind. It gets to you, no matter how much experience you have.

Saying all of this the one thing you can count on, is I am up at 4 or 5 AM every morning. I have my routine, and I handicap each and every game. I watch the numbers and I use the techniques that I have used over the last 20 years, making adjustments of course at the end of each season. There are no hunches, or guesswork involved on my end. And I do not promise anything at all except the hard work I put in and share every day.

Anyone that promises you that you are going to make money with their picks, you need to run away from. That is a promise an honest handicapper cannot make.

So, we still have a lot of college hoops ahead of us. We have the Superbowl which typically is anticlimactic as to me its just another game. We have the rest of the NBA and NHL Season.

The NBA has been more disappointing to me than college hoops. Even though we are around break even. These NBA plays historically have been some of the largest EV situations I have found. Perhaps they are reverting back to the mean, or perhaps we are just dealing with variance. I will figure that out when the season is over.

We have MLB coming up very fast. And if you are not planning on betting the overnights, I would not subscribe. That is where the money is in MLB. The regular season plays have been break-even at best ever since I started handicapping MLB.

But these MLB overnights, both the sides and totals, have been something to see. But you need to have several outs, and you need to have ones that put the lines out as close to Cris in time as you can find. They are out there, if you live in Vegas you will not have any trouble.

If not, then its offshore books. So, the best way to approach that is to go to SBR and see their ratings. I would not go with any that are less than an A rating. And I would stick with A+ if you can. These rating change a bit, so you have to stay on top of it. And its always better to have more than one out.

So that is my January rundown. Its a lot longer than I meant it to be, but usually my thoughts run wild as I get going. I am on Skype anytime you want to ask questions. My username there is riccja. Or just drop me an email.

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks


Skype : riccja

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