One more top ranked team playing today:
@2 Ohio State
Betting is 68% pm Ohio State with the line moving from -20.5 to -20 on the road dog. Variables strongly favor Indiana while models slightly favor Ohio St. In addition we have a reverse line move in favor of Indiana. This would be a solid play if the models supported it.
If the models were even neutral I would be betting on Indiana but they are not so I am passing.
A top 10 team plays in 30 min in College Football:
#10 Oklahoma St
Betting is 77% on Oklahoma state with the line moving from -17 to -19. You can ever get 19.5 in a few spots. Variables favor Oklahoma St and models favor Tulsa. If this game was anything but the opening game of the season I might consider
Variables favor Oklahoma St and models favor Tulsa. If this game was anything but the opening game of the season I might consider betting Tulsa.
However, home favorites in the first game of the season under certain circumstances are the way to go. The line movement of 2 pts makes up for it just a little but not enough. For my purposes, however, I do not wager on home favorites where the public is on them 77%. So the game is a pass for me.
For my purposes, however, I do not wager on home favorites where the public is on them 77%. So the game is a pass for me.
Another top 10 game at 5 with #2 Ohio State I will have a comment on that game also.
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On Wednesday we have 4 plays and went 2-2. All four were overnights.
We won with Arizona +100 6-4 and San Diego -120 5-0. We lost with Colorado -109 2-6 and Oakland +137 8-10.
So far today I have sent out 2 plays.
We are getting some big moves on some of these overnights. Colorado -109 went to -156 by game time and San Diego -120 went to -153.
This is happening almost every day now in several of the plays.
It’s tempting to lay off 1/2 but my rule is generally that I do not lay off a wager that moves. The reason is now your laying juice on both ends. The exception to this is when your wagering to make a middle from the start. I did that in College hoop totals a number of years ago but that was a unique situation.
Also, let me mention that I have a page on my site devoted only to political odds. You can find the page link on the top of my home page under political odds.
I update it several times a week when odds have changed or when new situations are posted that look good to me.
College football begins in earnest today with a full schedule of games this weekend.
Let me mention that in college football the first week of games typically does not produce many plays. Sometimes it produces none:) Many of the variables I have in my handicapping routine are dependent on the previous game or two.
In addition, the opening game of the season tends not to go according to contrarian analysis. So we will see.
I plan on breaking down the games this season by 1 unit, 1/2 unit and leans. I will do that for both college football and the NFL. Also, I will be breaking down every NFL game when the regular season starts along with top 25 matchups.
In addition, of course, I will post on Saturday my Westgate (Hilton ) NFL super contest picks for subscribers. On Sunday the contest picks will be posted on my site.
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks