Just like that we are the Round of 32 in College Hoops!!! - Rickj's Handicapping Picks

Just like that we are the Round of 32 in College Hoops!!!

4:10 Update

Three more college hoop games on tap for tonight:

#9 Conn

#1 Kansas

Betting is 65% on the favorite Kansas with the line moving from -8-106 to -7.5-103. Clearly a reverse line move that is shown at almost all the books.  Models are neutral and variables slightly favor Conn. Its close. But I need something more on the variable side to pull the trigger. My variables I look at support both sides of the game but the weight of them is on Conn. So I am passing. However if you have successful handicapping techniques you can use this information as a filter to lead to to betting Conn or staying away from the game.

#11 Gonzaga

#3 Utah

Betting is 53% on the Favorite with the line moving from 0 to -1.5-101. That line is pretty much everywhere right now. Models are neutral and variables slightly favor Utah. It is interesting the over 50% of the betting is on the #11 seed and the line has moved on the #11 seed. This would indicate to me that most likely the “sharp money” is on Gonzaga tonight. But its far from clear. I am passing on the game

#9 Providence

#1 North Carolina

Betting is 56% on N.Car with the line moving from -9.5 to -11-110. 11.5 at some books. That’s a pretty big move with only 56% of the betting on N.Carolina. That would indicate to me that its a combination of the public and “sharp money” making the move. But again its far from clear.  Models are neutral and variables are split evenly on the game. I see no edge at all either way. I am passing.

I posted these today because I had not played on any college hoop games today. In the future, I will be back to 1 or 2 games at most that hopefully have some interesting twists to them.

 

 

 

3:30 Update:

#9 Butler

#1 Virginia

Betting is 67% on Virginia with the line moving from -7-106 to -8-115. 8.5 and a few 9s are out there. Models and variables are both flat on the game. Public betting gives very little guidance also. A pass for me. About as close to a coin toss as one could imagine.

 

2:40 Update

Next up is :

#12 Arkansas LR

#4 Iowas State

Betting is 62% on Iowas State with the line moving from -6.5 to -5.5-108. Plenty of +6 around and even a +6.5.

Models are neutral and Variables slightly favor Arkansas LR. In addition, we have a reverse line move pointing to Ark-LR. The problem I have with the game is the variables only slight favor Ark-LR. Otherwise, I would be playing the game. But you have your handicapping methods pointing to the dog  then this might sway you to bet the dog. Myself I am passing on the game.

 

1:10 Update

In an hour the next NCAA Tournament game starts with:

#5 Indiana

#4 Kentucky

Betting is 66% on Kentucky with the line moving from -3-106 to -3.5-112. The line has just gotten started moving a bit and you can find a -4 at a number of spots and even an isolated -4.5.  Models are neutral. Variable slightly favor Indiana. This is a game I will be interested in seeing where the line ends up. At +4.5 it’s difficult not to take Indiana. But still there is not enough there for me to decide this game is a play. The lines today are very tight as you can tell as opposed to the first two days when plays were abundant. I am passing on the game.

 

11:35 Update

The final Morning game  in teh NCAA Tourney is :

#12 Yale

#4 Duke

Betting is 61% on the Favorite Duke with the line moving from -6-106 to -6.5 +103. You can find -6 at some books and also -7 and even a -7.5.  Models are neutral while variables slightly favor Yale. It’s pretty clear from the lines that the books that take the public money are moving the line to -7 and even -7.5. While the “sharp money” books like Pinnacle at -6.5+101 and Grande -6-105 is keeping the line pretty solid. To me that means the “sharp money” is on Yale but at 39% and no reverse line move its not as clear as other games. Is an interesting set of numbers that leads me to believe if your handicapping points to Yale you might want to bet them. Especially if you have a +7 or +7.5 number. Myself I am passing.

 

 

10:40 Update

Two more games at 11:00

UL Lafayette

Furman

Betting is 68% on the road fav Lafayette with the line staying steady at -2-106 to -2-108. Variables and models are neutral. In addition not much I can see form a % point of view with the exception that you would think at 68% the line would be moving a bit on Laf. That would indicate to me sharp money is on Furman today. But Thats about all I can see on the game. So a pass.

New Hampshire

Coastal Carolina

Betting is 68% on the home favorite with the line moving from -6-106 to -5.5 -106. That is a reverse line move that is also there in most books. Thats an excellent indication that that “sharp money” is on New Hampshire.  Models and variables are completely neutral on the game. So I am passing. If your handicapping techniques lead you to New Hampshire you might want to give the reverse line move some weight in deciding to bet the game.

 

8:30 Update

The first two games of the day tip off in 30 min:

Wagner

Creighton

The first game of the day is an NIT game. 57% of the betting is on Creighton with the line moving from -15-106 to -14.5 -104. A semi-reverse line move. Although the reverse line move is not there for many books.  Models and variables are neutral on the game. So the only thing I see the game has going for it is the small reverse line move pointing towards Wagner.  As I am typing this more and more books are moving there the line down to -14.5. But this alone is not enough for me to consider the game so I am passing.

#11 Wichita State

# 3 Miami FL

Betting is 54% on the favorite Wichita with the line moving from -2.5 -106 to -2-108. Maybe we can call this a semi-semi reverse line move:)  Models are neutral and variables slightly favor Miami.  The public numbers, however, are almost 50 50 and without a clear-cut public % edge I am passing on the game. Its interesting that a #11 seed is favored over a #3 seed. And even more interesting that the #11 seed is getting over 50% of the betting on them. If Miami fits into your handicapping techniques you might want to use the above to take the plunge on Miami. But again I am passing.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Friday turned out to be another busy day with 8 1 unit plays and 1 1/2 unit play. Our 1 unit plays went 4-4 and our 1/2 unit play 1-0.

The College Totals went 0-2, college sides 3-2, NBA went 1-0 on 1 unit and 1-0 on 1/2 unit sides.

We started the day at 0-3! And that is during a mild drawdown. But then we started winning games easily going 5-1 after that losing only Michigan that had an 11 point lead at the half.

A word about sports betting and gambling in general. I have always said about playing limit poker that the period in a month is broken up as follows:

  1. 1/3 of the time there will be nothing you can do to win regardless of how well you play
  2. 1/3 of the time as long as you play a reasonable game you’re going to end up winning
  3. 1/3 of the time winning is going to depend on your skill level and game selection

Also, during that month, there will be 2 or 3 sessions where things are going to be miserable for you no matter what you do.

In addition, there will be 2 or 3 sessions you could throw out the rule book for starting hands, post flop play etc as your going to win.

Finally, every 3 year stretch you’re going to be confronted with a losing streak that is going to make you wonder if poker is for you. That’s the period when most players give it up either by getting discouraged or running out of money.

The 1st episode during this 3 year period is going to take you by surprise especially if you have been running over variance. But if you weather the storm and get through it with your money and sanity and 2nd episode during the next 3 years is going to be worse for most. Human nature what it is most players feels this is an anomaly.

The 2nd episode during the next 3 years not many but the die-hard players will be around to play full time. Most get very discouraged at this point.

But the ones that get past the 2 nd episode typically are the ones that make it and do well in the poker world. They have become conditioned and seasoned poker plays and gamblers. They have finally learned real time about variance and the respect that variance needs to be given.

Now you have to ask what possible relevance does this story have to sports betting? These patterns I have talked about above are prevalent in any full-time endeavor where you are trying to obtain a positive EV in gambling. Its the way things work.

That is why when you look around at your friends that partake in poker or sports betting very few last past the 1st major encounter with variance. Now they probably call it by a different name….” bad luck” or “why does this always happen to me” or ” I am so unlucky”.

When I moved to Las Vegas I wish I had someone to tell me the above. None of the books you read about poker or gambling in general talk about the above except in general terms. They discuss variance in terms of big bets needed etc. But nowhere the actual real-time discussion of the implications of variance on players.

So as your guide the above is not based upon theoretical math. This is based upon real-time play by a winning player. A player that plays with his mind programmed for an optimum strategy for the games he plays. So take heed regarding the above and give it some thought. As if your serious about full-time betting there is no escaping the above patterns. At the very least when it hits you recognize it for what it is. That is a big step in helping you deal with it.

That is why when we have a 5 unit downswing and a subscriber emails me about how I could ever pick a play like that or how I steered him off a winner that was the softest play of the year I know that the person is not long for sports betting or gambling of any nature. Or when a person takes a beat by a last second 3 pointer at midcourt and goes ballistic and gets mad that is another indicator that the person will not be around at the end of the season.

I have seen most of what there is to see with variance and beats and, of course, win streaks! So I could go through 20 units to the downside and I will be back the next morning doing what I do as I know that in the long run I have an excellent chance of beating the odds at what I do. But you cannot do this by randomly choosing your bet size. Or deciding what your betting parameters are going to be each morning. It cannot be done that way.

Enough rambling by me this morning:) I will try to post more game analysis today with the number of games winding down. And if you enjoy this site take a second to share it or like it with one of the buttons on this post. That would help me out a lot!

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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