Just the normal lunacy this morning, how will the Stock Market react today? Some thoughts:)

The stock market is hovering around the 0 line about 20 min before the open.
 
Of note, TLT up slightly while metals and Oild and financials are underwater.
 
To me, this is a negative premarket bias. I would not be surprised to see some sort of sell off this morning.
 
Although, I have to admit, predicting selloffs in this market has been a low % prediction:)
 
Not much more in the news. Just the same lunacy and hysteria we are seeing every day. At this point, the public has become shell-shocked, and have pretty much ignored the media.
 
I doubt that will change. You can only cry wolf so many times before people start ignoring you.
 
One interesting twist this morning is it appears the White House is now shifting gears and kicking up their attacks on Sessions.
 
I suspect the attacks will continue to get worse. But, I doubt Sessions will resign. If he has not resigned by now he is not going anywhere. At least not until the Mueller investigation concludes. At that point, I doubt he will last a week.
 
So, if you are looking for political turmoil to subside, forget it. It is shifting into a higher gear now. There is no doubt at this point that Mueller is not going anywhere and will be picking up the attacks on the Presidency.
 
That means there will be market volatility which at times will get nausea-inducing if you are overweighted on the long side.
 
Another thing to note is that the Fed has announced they will not be swayed by the White House on monetary policy. That means more rate hike coming.
 
Which also means the U.S. debt will become more difficult to pay back and the U.S. will be less competitive in the global markets.
 
Then we have the Cavenaugh vote coming up. The odds are 10 to 1 in favor of him being confirmed. I am not that convinced it will be that easy.
 
I put the odds at closer to 2 to 1. The reason I think that is they need 50 Republicans to vote for the confirmation. Without 50 votes there will be 0 Democrat votes. So they can only lose 1 republican on this vote.
 
With the number of Trump’s enemies in the Senate in the Republican camp, I suspect there will be some 2nd thoughts on confirming as we get closer to the vote.
 
Cynic that I tend to be, I think that the chances of a 4 to 4 supreme court on the issue of a Trump Suponea or even a Trump Indictment will be on the minds of some Republicans on this vote.
 
Once Cavenaugh is in place Trump is a shoo-in to win to both of these issues. Without Cavenaugh, it’s not that clear. As a 4 to 4 tie would not reverse a decision of a lower court.
 
I assure you that this is on the minds of people like Flake and a few others.
 
Let’s see how wrong I am on this:)
 
If Cavenaugh does not get confirmed it will not bode well for any chance of political stability in the U.S.
 
I will keep a watch on this, as it has a direct correlation to risk in the markets.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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