An hour before the open and the pre-market is mixed. SPY and DIA are negative, while QQQ and IWM positive.
Of note, TLT off about 1/5%, Metals mixed, Financials and Oil strong.
To me, that is a positive pre-market bias. I would be looking for more upside today. Absent news of course. Remember, on Friday can be a new dump day.
This has been a monster run for the markets, just when you thought the bull market might be tired.
On the geopolitical front, N. Korea keeps calming down and Russia is meeting with OPEC.
Also interestingly enough, 4 countries are begging the White House not to declassify intelligence reports.
In the U.S. its the same insanity day by day. The Kavanaugh confirmation has turned into Chaos. It seems like the Republicans are never going to learn.
The odds of confirmation are bouncing around a bit, but this morning you can get 2 to 1 if you want to wager on no confirmation by 10/31st.
I do not see much reason to change my assessment today. 5 to 1 against a nomination before 10/31st. The Republican will do what they do best. Cave.
The most interesting thing to me that is happening in the U.S. right now is the midterms in less than 2 months. The concept of a blue wave has long past. And very little chance of a Red wave.
But, an election our of Texas, for a state Senate season was very revealing. A seat held by the Democrats for over 100 years has flipped Republican in a primarily Hispanic area.
Wrap you head around that one:) The implications on a national scale? I would have to drop some acid and speak to my inner self before I could figure that one out! But, at the very least, its not a positive for the idea of a blue wave.
It would be interesting to see what the polling was on that season before the election.
The other interesting thing going on right now is the White Declassification of the FISA documents and text messages.
It seems that is like yelling fire in a crowded theatre listening to the Democrats and the media.
The race is on however now. Find something against Trump before everything is released. As I suspect, once all text messages and FISA documents are released, the U.S. Marshall will be very busy rounding people up:)
So, it will be stall stall stall from here on out. Rosenstein’s mask will come off completely, and Sessions mask in my judgment is evaporating quickly.
When the President says he has no AG, I suspect he knows things that most do not. Although, Sessions actions have led many to suspect that anyway.
The chaos is just going to get crazier heading into the midterms. If you have an emotional stake in all this, you might want to take a vacation and come back when the smoke clears.
If you are a MAGA person you are comfortable in the idea that the President operates best in chaos. As Jon Voight put it, Trump welcomes Chaos.
If you are a Democrat or Republican Anti Trumper, you can be comfortable in knowing that unlimited resources are being put forward to remove Trump.
You can also be comfortable in knowing that there is nothing his opposition will not to do remove Trump at this point.
Get out your popcorn and enjoy the circus. While in the meantime pick off some good swing trades feeling sorry for the miscreants that are caught up psychologically in this mess. And there are many.
The market has turned pretty overbought right now, but remember, overbought can stay that way for a long time. It just means that the environment for swing trading is a bit trickier.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks