It is time to take another look at how the political odds are shaping since my last post.
Right now the odd on everyone’s mind is whether Kavanaugh will be confirmed by 10/31st.
These odds have been moving around and they are sitting at 2 to 1 in favor of his confirmation. At this point, I can see it going either way.
McConnell says he has the votes. Graham is pushing this hard. It is all going to come down to Flake, Collins, and Murkowski. There will be no Dem votes unless the Republican have the votes.
Murkowski is 55-45 for a yes and Collins is 60/40. I cannot find anything on Flake.
This is a wager I would stay away from at this point. However, by midweek you should have a good idea where the vote is going to be.
Control of the House is staying steady at 2 to 1 in favor of the Democrats. I would still take the 2 to 1. I view it an even money wager.
The across the board fade of every Democrat running that is in Trump state that he won. The odds are still attractive, and right now the fade is the best I can of all the wagers.
Another interesting wager is whether Rosenstein will be Deputy AG on 11/7. The odds are 5 to 2 that he will be.
You would think that the revelation that he discussed wiretapping Trump would be an automatic dismissal. But, you have to consider why would the Dems let that info out?
In addition, why would Coons state that Flake called Rosenstein before deciding to have another week for the FBI investigation?
There is something afoot as to why the Dems want Rosenstein out.
So where does that leave us in evaluating this wager:) If I were forced to bet it I would lay the 5 to 2 that he is going to be around?
But I would not wager on this for value, there are just too many uncertainties.
If you are looking for a long shot wager you can get 10 to 1 that Hillary will not face any charges this year. I think there is value at 10 to 1 but it is a longshot. If I were putting out a line it would be closer to 5 to 1.
That’s it for this week.
Good luck if you’re making a Political wager. They are certainly interesting
RickJ’s Handicapping Pick