The Stock Market is mixed this morning with most indexes in the green slightly but IWM hovering around the 0 line.
Of Note, TLT and the U.S. Dollar positive, Metals and Oil down sharply.
To me, this is a negative premarket bias. I would be looking for a gap fill today.
Today is Fed day and the expectation is a 1/4 rise in short-term rates. I suspect the language of the Fed is what will be watched. Also, I suspect the Fed will not be too hawkish in their language. So, most likely no effect on the markets with that scenario.
A departure from that could be a big move in either direction.
Not much has changed on the news. Kavanaugh hearing is tomorrow with a vote scheduled Friday early. Then McConnell has indicated there will be an up and down vote early next week.
So this sad spectacle is finally coming to a close (maybe).
For those that like to follow the odds, it is still about even money whether Kavanaugh will be confirmed and 6 to 4 in favor of Ford showing up to testify Thursday.
An interesting wager would be to take the 3 to 2 that Ford will not testify, and then also take even money that Kavanaugh will not be confirmed.
It appears to me that there could be equity in that option. Although its far from having some risk.
Of course, anything can happen:) But looks like some equity in this to me.
Then we have Rosenstein. He meets with the President on Thursday. The reporting is all over the board, which shows that people are at work feeding false information to the media.
This is likely being done by both the Dems and the White House.
Sorting through it all, it appears that Rosenstein is safe until after the midterms. Although the betting odds are 55 to 45 he will not be around on November 7th.
There is one thing fairly certain in all of this, Sessions is not going to fire him. It will either come from the White House, a resignation or the House starting impeachment proceedings.
Of the above, the resignation seems the most likely. And that to me does not seem very likely either.
Then, of course, we have the declassification issues that are being reviewed in an expedited manner with the IG. (Not AG)
All three of these have the potential to be market moving. To keep track of where things are at on these, the WSJ is probably the best source to get accurate reporting.
If you’re getting your facts from the rest of the media, you are more likely living in an alternate reality from what is actually going on.
In these times, if you do not have a handle on accurate reporting of the news, you might as well hang it up for swing trading. It is going to cost you.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks