Thursday we had 3 plays and went 1-2. Our winner, however, was a 1 unit play so we ended up +.56 units for the day.
Our 1 unit play was with Atlanta +156 winning 5-2, we also had a 1/2 unit play on Miami +156 that lost 3-4 and an overnight on Arizona +157 that lost 4-5.
So far today I have sent out 4 plays.
As I have pointed out a number of times the top to bottom this MLB season is only 11 units. That is an incredibly small number considering that we have had almost 250 plays so far this season. One never knows what to expect from one season to the next but I would never have anticipated this small of a range no matter what fine tuning I did during the offseason.
Last season it was closer to 30 units top to bottom.
Many people like to just keep track of the downside only. But top to bottom to me is more reflective of the true state of what is happening.
As an example, you could have 10 poker sessions where you jump off to a big lead.Let’ss say playing 20-40 Omaha 8 you all 10 session jump to +2000 but also in all 10 sessions you end up losing 200 for the session.
If you’re only keeping track of the maximum loss for the day it in no way reflects the standard deviation. In this instance, the number would be -200 compared to 2200 top to bottom.
If you track that you will be surprised at the high number you come up with and also have a different perspective on risk. In these examples, 2200 was after a gain. But it could work out that 2200 comes to the downside also without a big gain early.
In addition to the high number, you will also be surprised as to how consistent these numbers get. Once you have a large enough sample the numbers tend to be pretty solid.
The concept is true for all forms of gambling. I suggest you add that to the stats you keep on your wagers. It will help you a lot.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks