A long weekend and we are looking at futures very slightly to the plus side an hour before the open. Overnight ranges have been very narrow.
My thought is weakness the first half of the week than an upside move. That is what everything I look at is telling me. However, in the background, we have seasonality which typically is weak in September. Usually, mid-October is the date you want to start looking at medium term positions to hold until may 1. I will have more on that as we get closer to that date.
The only geopolitical event going on now is the G20. It’s had some interesting unique flare-ups but nothing I consider market moving. There, of course, is still the trouble spots simmering in the background along with the Democrats doing something over the line to assure a Trump loss. It’s not looking like they will need to although if things get iffy hard telling what might happen. That has the potential to give a real scare to the markets.
So, as usual, a lot going on and until we have seasonality at our back it’s probably best not to get very aggressive. At least that is how I am going to trade the markets now.
In any form of gambling whether it is the markets , poker or sports betting if you do not have patience you cannot win. There is no easy money made gambling. It takes hard work, focus, introspective ability, removal of ego from the process, and of course obsessive following of proper position or bet sizing.
That is far from a complete list but its a good start. When you gamble if you cannot clearly define your edge than you most likely do not have one! When it comes to poker you should be able to look around the table and have a detailed idea in your head where your edge is against each player in the game. Same for trading and handicapping sports although the personal touch is not present. But it’s a transaction-based analysis without the human variable (except you of course)!
Finally, the best role model for gambling if you need one to help you in the process. Is think Spock. That is the type of ability you need to be a professional gambler. You do not have to act like Spock but your mind best work like his.
That’s my post labor day ramble:)
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
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