It’s Friday after a news-filled week that has given us a tip of what to expect if this geopolitical mess continues.
On Thursday you had the leaving U.S. government take an unprecedented act in the U.N with and equally unprecedented speech by the lame duck Secretary of State which contributed to the instability of the markets on Wednesday.
Then on Thursday you had and equally unprecedented action by the lame duck administration just 3 weeks before the transition of government placing sanctions on Russia based upon a report that is headed by this disclaimer:
“DISCLAIMER: This report is provided “as is” for informational purposes only. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) does not provide any warranties of any kind regarding any information contained within. ”
Homeland security must think they are trying to sell a used car:)
Combine the disclaimer with the fact that Congress still has not been briefed after demanding that the heads of the agencies report to them is incredulous!
In any event, the markets did not like this one bit yesterday.
But today is a new day and the markets are gapping up over 1/4% 90 min before the open (yes I get up very early here in Las Vegas)
I put on my 2nd mean reversion trade in spy via sso at the close yesterday so I now have 1/2 a position and looking for a rally here. We will see.
It’s been a choppy two days for my trades and have been stopped out of several. Despite my thoughts that we get another rally very soon I still respect my stops. It’s a slippery slope to start fudging on preset stops. Not many survive doing that for any length of time.
Hopefully now the current lame duck administration is going to take a few days off and celebrate the New Year rather than trying to do what they should of concentrated on when they were in power for 8 years. Attempting to fix something in a few day before leaving not only is unrealistic but also make them prone to more critical mistakes (if that is possible)
I plan on managing existing trades today and most likely will not be putting on new positions. Although I am flexible about that since we still have a stretch of mostly a tailwind heading into may.
Let me digress a bit.
I have been getting a lot of positive feedback regarding my geopolitical comments along with the idea it is appreciated I take a somewhat neutral approach to these issues.
My geopolitical comments are in no way reflective of any opinions I have on these issues. The issues are rather complex with no easy answers.
I usually understand both sides of the issues and can in some instance both sides have valid points. Being a trial attorney I have learned nothing is as clear as it might appear or as clear as someone might be telling you it is.
I only wish to bring these issues to the forefront as I feel that it is impossible to invest wisely without at least a backdrop of what is going on that might cause volatility in the markets.
There is never going to be a time when there is nothing to be concerned about unfortunately as the earth is inhabited by humans. And you all know by now my opinion on that. But it’s important to know what could be on the horizon for your portfolio. Economic issues typically are built into the market. Geopolitical issues are so fluid that typically they are not. Something to keep in mind
Enough for this morning as I have some bowl games to take a look at. No rest for the weary!
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
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