One more bowl game today:
Betting is 58% on the dog and the line has stayed steady at -6. Models favor C. Mich Variables are neutral. With 58% of the betting on the dog this steers me away from C. Mich. Typically the public bets the favorite. When they are on the dog its time to start looking at the favorite. However in this instance the lack of variables and no support from the models make the favorite also a no play. I am passing on the game.
Sunday it was all NFL going 5-0 on my Hilton contest picks. Winning my NFL play on Baltimore +10. Winning my setup in the NFL on the Bears +3.5. And going 2-1 on my NFL totals setups.
This week was a reverse of the week before where all the public favorites covered easily going 7-1. This week it was a bloodbath for the public. The books made up their losses and more. Not only did the big public favorites not cover but they lost outright.
So we are approaching the final week of the NFL season( it sure went by fast) and College Hoops is in full swing. So far this season the surprise in my Handicapping has been the NHL that is up over 11 units so far on the season. This however is no surprise to me as turning this into a subscription based site has allowed me to be able to invest in more accurate and detailed historical data along with more sophisticated software.
In addition I am now full time handicapping and trading. I have not looked at a poker hand for months! And to be honest I do not miss it a bit. Thats coming from a 40 to 60 hour a week poker player for the last 12 years. In addition over the twelve years I had 0 losing years.
Ive been getting quite a few emails about the reason I have stopped playing and its something I will write about soon. But let me give you this for starters:
It has never been about money for me. When I was a trial attorney it was never about how much money I made. Also when I was in business it was never about making money. Money was just a means of keeping score. And it was no different when I started playing poker full time.
Usually when you saw me at the table you would not be able to tell whether I was winning or losing. I could be 50 big bets in the hole for the day and usually my demeanor was the same as being 50 big bets in front. Again money was just a means of keeping score. I enjoyed the game. I enjoyed the competition.
But then something finally sunk in…..Most of the locals that were playing in the game were the exact opposite. It was ALL about money. And therein is the tragic part of it. Most lost year in and year out. Or if they had a good year they won a very small amount of money. But if you listened to them talk they were all offshoots of Chip Reese and Doyle Brunson!
But it always ended the same with the locals. A steady grind to broke, bankruptcy and borrowing money to play. And with that came a change in personality. By the time I finally decided to give it up being around many of the locals that play was unbearable. Not only from the standpoint of how sad it was watching the inevitable but also having to deal with their increasingly hostile personality.
So poker changed for me. It was a game I could not wait to get into the poker rooms every day and play 10 hours to finally an unbearable ordeal. So logical person that I am….I decided to quit playing. Now there is much more to it but this gives you the overall tenor of the atmosphere of the games when I quit playing.
There are a number of players I did enjoy seeing and playing with. In addition I made a few friends that I will miss interacting with but at the end it was a tough decision I had to make. As you get older you appreciate being around positive people. Not only is it a better environment but also a healthier one. The poker world with the locals I played with was as negative as it could be.
As a young tourist that came to town about twice a year mentioned to me a number of years ago ” Rick, How do you put up with the regulars in the game, most have severe mental disorders, or at the least severe anti social tendencies” At the time I smiled and told him as a poker player you had to adjust, but it became just too much of an ordeal to adjust to at the end.
I will write more but that gives all that have written a good idea why you do not see me when you come to town.
Back to sports betting after this digression. Bowl season is in full swing, college hoops is just getting started, we still have plenty of the NFL left, and the NHL is alive and kicking this season. A good time to get on board with one of the best values in sports handicapping. Rather then paying a 1500 or 2000 lump sum for just 1 sport for a small monthly subscription you get all sports. In addition I am available most of the time for questions or opinions on games. So hi the paypal button on the upper right and join us!!!
Hope to see you on board.
Subscribers I will send out plays shortly before game times. First game today starts at 11:30 Vegas Time.
I am at peace with the World this morning after going 5-0 Sunday in the NFL contest. My top pick Baltimore +10 not only covered but beat Pitt by 3! Not much will disturb me today escept maybe the market down 300:)
Its the last week of 2015 and its another shortened trading week. Historically the seasonality is bullish. And if your wondering what I mean by that just take a look at what the market did last week. SPY up 2.7%. These last two weeks are as strong as it gets for seasonality. All bets are off after the first of the year however.
Normally I like the sell in May idea but I am thinking that selling in May might be overstaying my welcome in this market. With the Fed hiking rates just as the economic slowdown is getting going, with oil plunging, with currencies tied to oil plunging (just take a look at the ruble) I know Putin is things are going to get crazy next year.
Combine that with Iran getting into the oil markets with debt as leveraged as it was in the housing market before the housing bust and you start seeing the potential for disaster in the financial markets around the world. And this does not even take into account the turmoil around the world by Terrorists. Tourism is in the tank. And the Fed is raising rates!
To give you an example of how far off this is Greenspan when staring at Y2K opened up the floodgates of liquidity just to be on the safe side. For a computer software glitch that in reality never was a bit of a problem. But Yellen faced with a number of potential financial catastrophe’s is raising rates. Who knows maybe it will turn out to be a brilliant move but most probably not.
I am long a portfolio of stocks and also have some swing and mean reversion trades going right now. The market is soft this morning but I anticipate it will not be in the red very long today. But the market is a bit overbought and that is the only thing keeping me from a 3 day swing trade in SPY. If by some miracle the market closes down today then I will take a look at it.
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