Last week of April for the Stock market. Will political dysfunction sink the market further?

We head into the last week with the stock market gaping up a bit this morning.
Indexes are being led by QQQ up just under .5%.
Oil and Metals are sharply lower. To me, this is a neutral premarket bias.
As we enter the last week of April the markets are in neutral territory. So there is not much opportunity right now for a mean reversion trade.
Also, my AMTX trade has not pulled back so what was a consistent trading vehicle has now stalled.
Its wait and see right now. No opportunity here until the market pulls back a bit. In addition, the Nasdaq SPY ratio triggered a sell signal 2 weeks ago. Until that reverses its best to take a very conservative approach.
On the news front, it’s the same old thing. Political dysfunction at levels the U.S. has never seen.
A perfect illustration is today’s vote in the Senate Judiciary Committee where Pompeo is up for confirmation.
Historically this nomination sail through both the judiciary committee and the Senate. But these are far from normal times. It’s not good enough to have been at the top of your class at West Point and top of your class at Harvard anymore. You have to have a particular ideology or you do not past the muster.
So the circus goes on. In all likelihood, Pompeo will fail in the Judiciary Committee as a result of Paul taking a dogmatic unflexible position.
But the chances on the Senate floor are a bit better as some of the Dems in Red states that Trump carried are thinking longevity in office is a more important consideration than going to the party line “resistance”.
But it will be close. And the spin will be monumental heading into the Senate floor vote. Best to turn off the news and take a look next week at the results:)
Then, of course, we have the IG report out in the next 2 weeks and whatever news out of the special counsel’s office.
In that regard, the White House added Guilianni to its legal team late last week. If our a White House supporter that is good news. If your not, its bad news as I see it.
In any event, if you’re a political junkie that thrives on this your in heaven right now regardless of which side you support.
The ups and downs of the news cycle are dramatic. But it has taken its toll on the markets finally.
I have been warning about this for quite awhile now. But I was a bit early. Now it’s taking its toll in a big way.
Be aware of the news cycles. Sometimes they are predictable and can be taken advantage of ahead of time. But more importantly, they create oversold conditions that usually produce good trading opportunities. The trick is to get out before the next negative news cycle hits:)
Good Luck Trading Today

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Skype: riccja

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