I get a lot of email regarding the difference between a lean and a play. The answer is there really isnt much difference. My handicapping techniques have evolved over the last 3 years to where I have isolated what I consider subsets of the betting universe for each sport that I feel have a positive ev.
I have eliminated totals and now just handicap the sides. In addition the one sport that
I havnt gotten a handle on yet is ncaa baskets. I cannot find any subset consistent enough to wager on in that sport.
What this means is from here on out there will be fewer picks. Since I am only going to put out the games that fall under the various subsets I have set up.
Now to answer the question …when I look at a subset of games I then have other variables I look at to then consider the game a play or a lean.
A play is where everything points to that side and a lean is all but 1 variable.
The difference is minor and my unit value is the same on both.
So to sum up…..I start with a subset of games that I feel overall has a positive ev. I then start my handicapping from that subset of games. So that what I feel are only the clearest from the subset make the pick.
The biggest variable to start out with is what the public is doing. That is the primary consideration in determing games that fit a subset…not the only one but the primary one. The threshold however is different for each sport.
I hope that clears things up:)