Monday we had 2 one unit plays in MLB and went 1-1. Miami +115 won 4-3 and Baltimore +115 lost 2-5.
We also had 3 big move games:
White sox +117
White sox +109
Two went our way with the other staying about the same. We did have a big move with Miami +115 moving to Miami -126!!!
These predictive line moves are much better than just having power ratings. I have been doing this for years and have yet found power ratings from any source to be enough to build a winning handicapping method on.
Predicting line moves with the certainty of these Big Move Games can be invaluable for a serious handicapper. I suggest taking a good look at them and draw your own conclusions.
MLB is almost finished and it has been a season that has tested even the most patient handicappers. For those of you that have been with us from start to the present and are in the plus column, I congratulate you. Its like passing the bar exam for sports betting.
Let me add the only way you would be ahead in baseball following these plays is by using something similar to what I suggest in the “must read portion” of this site for bet sizing. If you are randomly picking our bet sizes and picking and choosing which plays to bet on your most likely losing at this point in the baseball season.
Let me also say this is what handicapping sports is all about. Its important not to think in terms of one game. Think in terms of large sample sizes. Say 200 games or 500 games. Thats why when we lose a game like Cleveland +4.5 by 1/2 a point it does not phase me. I hardly even think about it. Its like the poker players that keep score by the session. I always when playing poker full time thought in terms of yearly P/L. And even then its only to take a look at my year and see where I might be able to improve.
I was playing in a Omaha 8 game a few years ago and was having a session where I had an amazing amount of very good hands. After several hours of a rush of good hands I was losing around 60 big bets! I could not win a hand. The person next to me who I knew very well and enjoyed playing with made the comment about when was I going to give it up for the day. My comment to him was if your playing good and the game is good what is the difference between having a 100 big bet downswing in 3 weeks or 1 session, its only variance. He laughed and said at 30 big bets he starts to get mad:)
The point is that is how I approach betting. And that is what you should strive for. Try to keep the fear and greed out of the equation. Keep the human element to a minimum and strive to think in terms only of the long run.
Now that I have rambled a bit lets take a look at where we stand for MLB 2016:
1 Unit plays:
82-82 +21.81 Units
1/2 Unit plays (sides)
1/2 Unit Plays (Totals)
Season to date total:
The good news is that many of the 1/2 unit play setups are now discarded as they do not meet the 2 year requirement of RT performance. That is why you rarely see a 1/2 unit play anymore.
Looking over the season I am confident the groundwork is set for the potential to have an even better MLB season in 2017.
In addition if we end MLB in the positive it will complete for me my goal of being profitable in every sport I handicap! Its taken a lot of work to get to this point Matter of fact its taken over 13 years of hard work to get to this point. I now a few of you have been following me from the beginning and you know exactly what I mean:)
I am done rambling for this morning!
So far today I have sent out 2 Big Move Games.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks