One top 25 team is playing tonight:
#22 Oklahoma St
Betting is 77% on the road favorite with the line moving from -26.5 to -28. Models favor Oklahoma state. Variables ever so slightly favor S Alabama and Public betting favors S. Alabama. If my models pointed to S. Alabama this would be an easy play for me with the public betting only at 22%. In addition, College Teams ranked in the bottom 10 of the top 25 tend to be overvalued. But my models put this play as a pass and that is what I am doing.
Thursday we had 3 plays and went 2-1 for +1.73 units
Both our 1 unit plays were winners with San Diego +109 winning 3-0 and the Mets +114 winning 7-2.
Our overnight lost with Phil +128 losing 3-4.
Today so far I have sent out 3 plays.
I wonder how many had NE in their survivor contest:) What a way to end a tournament. The first game of the season.
I have been receiving quite a few questions from nonsubscribers as to how I break down each NFL game. I am going to post the breakdown I sent out last night:
MODEL VARIABLE STEAM % PLAY
NE NEU NEU 64 NEU PASS
I do not see anything at all on this game. It used to be that road dogs <=7.5 with % under 40% were +EV plays. But not anymore, at least for the last several years. Double digits still good but that’s about it.
Models are neutral, as neutral as they can be as are the variables. % numbers are neutral also.
Now if the line goes to +9.5 and is a widely accepted number than we get into a lean on KC.
You do not want to fudge on this. Although +9 seems like whats the difference, there is a big difference in this instance, so do not even consider it unless you get 9.5 and even then it would only be a lean.
But it looks like a real long shot to get there anyway:)
Nothing remotely close on the college football game tonight.
Good luck tonight
Something like this will be sent out on every NFL game for the season to subscribers. You get not only what I send out in MLB every day but also my thoughts on the game looking at the strong points and weak points of the game.
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks