Futures have taken a 3 to 4 pt pop on the ES within a min after non-farm payroll report came out. The Report showed substantially less than the estimate and in the Stock Market, bad news is often good news. At least for now:)
The logic is that this takes a rate hike in September off the table. But of course, I never thought there would be one in September anyway. November now I say 50/50. Not because it is the correct thing to do but again the Fed has put themselves in a position of saving face as they were before the first rate hike.
So the fed is going to save face and increase the chances of the U.S. slowing down even more. And of course, if the U.S. slows down so does most of the world who struggles day-to-day with debt their economies.
Then, of course, we have one of the presidential nominees blasting the drug companies and threatening price limits if she is elected which are going to do wonders for biotech short term!
You would think sooner or later that public figures would know that speech has consequences. Sometimes unintended consequences. But nothing is going to change so as an investor it is important to stay on top of what is going on in the political world as it affects the markets.
I exited my GLD yesterday most likely right at the short-term bottom! But its one of the few systems I take signals from and do not question it. I also exited a medium term swing call for a small gain. So now I am flat.
My view is we still have a short-term positive bias in the markets. But we are heading into what historically is the worst month of the year for stocks. The good news is November is right around the corner which tends to start the strongest time of the year for the stock market. Although remember last year November started a big plunge which then resulted in an equally big V-shaped recovery. There were many casualties including myself taking a hit on some portfolio stocks this year.
I will be looking perhaps for a short-term swing today depending on how the market shapes up the first 15 to 30 min. I expect some volatility early after the public reacts to the non-farm payroll report. But then after 30 min we will know what type of day it will shape up to be.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
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