Wednesday we went 2-1 on our plays all in College hoops. We won with Georgia st and Louisville and lost with N.Iowa.
Today I have sent out no plays.
One question came up this morning I thought was instructive. I was asked in particular about a reverse line move in tonight’s NFL game from the Giants -3 to Phil -1.
That is a reverse line move and in addition, only 20% of the betting is on Phil. The problem is that the move is too big. Ideally in the NFL you want to have reverse line moves of 1/2 a pt to 1 pt. And then not off of key numbers like 3.
So that brings us to tonight’s NFL game:
Betting is 80% on the road dog with the line moving from Giants -3 to Phil -1.Models are now neutral and variables point to the Giants. Public betting favors Phil at 20% but this is offset by how large the move is.
If I were betting the game tonight I might consider the Giants. But at 80% that really takes the game away from being a consideration for me. I am steering clear of the game completely.
Also, let me mention we are in the last 2 weeks of the NFL. You will see some strange lines and usually the stranger the more you want to consider the line that is off. For instance, let’s say you had a 4-10 team playing new England and the 4-10 team was a 7 point favorite. You best be on the favorite or passing on the game. That’s just the way the last two weeks go.
One other thing the last 2 weeks is that the bottom dwellers with 0 to 2 wins are to stay away from no matter what. That is another peculiarity for the end weeks in the NFL.
For subscribers, it does not look like there will be any plays until 4:00 PST.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks