Major League Baseball sports betting is in full swing now and we are about 5 units to the plus side so far this season.
Below is what I sent out Friday morning to all subscribers. I send this report out every morning early to give an idea of what to expect for the day.
Then I typically send out overnight plays early afternoon P.S.T and then other plays the day of the game.
So far today I have sent out 3 one unit plays
If you want to subscribe and take advantage of these daily reports just go to the PayPal drop down menu and pick the subscription of your choice. All have a 3-day free trial.
As you will see below these reports are very comprehensive and can be invaluable for those that do their own handicapping. In addition, I have said the plays I have sent out so far this season are to plus side almost 5 units.
Here is the report from Friday morning. If anyone has any questions I can be contacted at [email protected] and also Skype, my username there is riccja.
“A better set of games than I have seen for awhile. Plenty of Variables in play today.
Before I start I added something to the chart. On the no edge entries I have a + – added on. Where there is a – after the no edge it means you are taking more the worst of it by taking that side. Where there is a plus it means the number is about right for that side. So with that, you have an indication of what side to stay away from if you’re doing your own handicapping.
Let me also say that the models for MLB are the strongest of all the sports. For a long time, I only used models as a filter rather than anything substantive to decide which side to play. But in MLB the models are as strong as Variables and in some instance % numbers. But since I have a strong bias for low % numbers I still refuse to wager on a team that has over 50% of the betting on them. It’s my “fooled by randomness” safeguard. No perfect, but in most instances, it works:)
Now, looking at today’s games:
The best by far is Miami. But we have them in an overnight. The line has actually moved against us at +123 now as we have +121. If you did not wager it overnight it’s still a good wager if not a bit better.
Colorado is a Strong Edge game but as we have a no edge – on the models we need the line to give us around +166 before I would consider it.
Milwaukee is in the exact same situation so around +132 before I would consider it.
Texas is an Average Edge game at +210. If these were the numbers before game time I would most likely wager 1/2 unit on the game.
Finally, we have a slight edge on KC. But the models clearly point to the Angels tonight. And we have the angels at -127 in an overnight play. Another interesting thing about the game is 81% of the betting is on the Angels tonight. Depending on what the numbers look like before game time I may lay off the overnight. Right now we can get +134 and I suspect by game time it’s higher. I doubt the “sharps” will be pounding KC tonight.
I will try to give an analysis each morning similar to this. This gives you some insight into my thought process in how I handicap these games. Its pretty methodical and its far from static. As I add various dimensions to it each season.
For the MLB Season, we are +2.8 Units. The overnights are predictive of the line at a 75% rate which is in line with last season. The average move is 8.1 which is a bit low from last season. So far we have had 37 overnight wagers and they have produced +4.11 Units. So the overnights so far have been the positive EV of the MLB Season. In line with what we saw last season.
I have also decided instead of giving you the detailed results which are duplicitous, You can check any time you wish by going to my google sheets page where I update the results each morning. I was sending you a copy and paste from that sheet. https://docs.google.com/
Please go over that daily to check for errors. I do make them from time to time.
|MLB – 4/13/2018||Open Line||C. Line||Model diff||Variable Edge||Public %||Public % Edge|
|951 ATL-A Sanchez||192||206||40%||No Edge +|
|952 CHC-Y Darvish||-210||-226||50+||No Edge||60%|
|953 STL-L Weaver||-150||-152||No Edge +||70%|
|954 CIN-T Mahle||138||14||No Edge –||No Edge||30%||Avg Edge|
|955 COL-K Freeland (L)||161||156||No Edge-||Strong Edge||32%||slight Edge|
|956 WAS-T Roark||-145||-169||No Edge+||68%|
|957 MIL-Z Davies||111||122||No Edge-||Strong Edge||27%||Slight Edge|
|958 NYM-S Matz (L)||-120||-132||No Edge+||73%|
|967 TOR-M Stroman||127||115||No Edge +||37%||No Edge +|
|968 CLE-M Clevinger||-138||-125||No Edge –||No Edge||63%|
|959 PIT-C Kuhl||-140||-133||68%|
|960 MIA-D Peters (L)||129||123||20+||Strong Edge||32%||Slight Edge|
|979 PHI-V Velasquez||-113||-106||67%|
|980 TB-J Faria||104||-102||No Edge+||No Edge||33%||Slight Edge|
|969 BAL-C Tillman||168||192||10+||38%||No Edge +|
|970 BOS-E Rodriguez (L)||-183||-210||No Edge||62%|
|966 DET-M Fiers|
|973 TEX-C Hamels (L)||210||210||5+||Avg Edge||36%||No Edge +|
|974 HOU-G Cole||-230||-230||64%|
|971 CHW-R Lopez|
|975 LAA-A Heaney (L)||Lay off???||-125||-145||15+||81%|
|976 KC-J Hammel||115||134||Slight Edge||19%||Strong Edge|
|963 ARI-Z Greinke||118||122||66%|
|964 LAD-K Maeda||-128||-132||5+||No Edge||34%||Slight Edge|
|977 OAK-A Triggs||102||-108||40%||No Edge +|
|978 SEA-M Leake||-110||100||No Edge||No Edge||60%|
|961 SF-T Blach (L)||-105||-108||72%|
|962 SD-T Ross||-103||100||No Edge +||No Edge||28%||Ave Edge|
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks