Major League Baseball sports betting is in full swing now! Take a look at subscribers daily morning report

Major League Baseball sports betting is in full swing now and we are about 5 units to the plus side so far this season.

Below is what I sent out Friday morning to all subscribers. I send this report out every morning early to give an idea of what to expect for the day.

Then I typically send out overnight plays early afternoon P.S.T and then other plays the day of the game.

So far today I have sent out 3 one unit plays

If you want to subscribe and take advantage of these daily reports just go to the PayPal drop down menu and pick the subscription of your choice. All have a 3-day free trial.

As you will see below these reports are very comprehensive and can be invaluable for those that do their own handicapping. In addition, I have said the plays I have sent out so far this season are to plus side almost 5 units.

Here is the report from Friday morning. If anyone has any questions I can be contacted at [email protected] and also Skype, my username there is riccja.

 

“A better set of games than I have seen for awhile. Plenty of Variables in play today.

Before I start I added something to the chart. On the no edge entries I have a +  – added on. Where there is a – after the no edge it means you are taking more the worst of it by taking that side. Where there is a plus it means the number is about right for that side.  So with that, you have an indication of what side to stay away from if you’re doing your own handicapping.

Let me also say that the models for MLB are the strongest of all the sports. For a long time, I only used models as a filter rather than anything substantive to decide which side to play. But in MLB the models are as strong as Variables and in some instance % numbers. But since I have a strong bias for low % numbers I still refuse to wager on a team that has over 50% of the betting on them. It’s my “fooled by randomness” safeguard. No perfect, but in most instances, it works:)

Now, looking at today’s games:

The best by far is Miami. But we have them in an overnight. The line has actually moved against us at +123 now as we have +121. If you did not wager it overnight it’s still a good wager if not a bit better.

Colorado is a Strong Edge game but as we have a no edge – on the models we need the line to give us around +166 before I would consider it.

Milwaukee is in the exact same situation so around +132 before I would consider it.

Texas is an Average Edge game at +210. If these were the numbers before game time I would most likely wager 1/2 unit on the game.

Finally, we have a slight edge on KC. But the models clearly point to the Angels tonight. And we have the angels at -127 in an overnight play. Another interesting thing about the game is 81% of the betting is on the Angels tonight. Depending on what the numbers look like before game time I may lay off the overnight. Right now we can get +134 and I suspect by game time it’s higher. I doubt the “sharps” will be pounding KC tonight.

I will try to give an analysis each morning similar to this. This gives you some insight into my thought process in how I handicap these games. Its pretty methodical and its far from static. As I add various dimensions to it each season.

For the MLB Season, we are +2.8 Units. The overnights are predictive of the line at a 75% rate which is in line with last season. The average move is 8.1 which is a bit low from last season. So far we have had 37 overnight wagers and they have produced +4.11 Units. So the overnights so far have been the positive EV of the MLB Season. In line with what we saw last season.

I have also decided instead of giving you the detailed results which are duplicitous, You can check any time you wish by going to my google sheets page where I update the results each morning. I was sending you a copy and paste from that sheet.   https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10AkTqdb-ikYsN6qaTXTX7w9PgQaW6IvNukLGokgch6M/edit?pli=1#gid=0

Please go over that daily to check for errors. I do make them from time to time.

Rick

 MLB – 4/13/2018 Open Line C. Line Model diff Variable Edge Public % Public % Edge
13-Apr
2:20 PM
951 ATL-A Sanchez 192 206 40% No Edge +
952 CHC-Y Darvish -210 -226 50+ No Edge 60%
13-Apr
6:40 PM 8.5o-123 8.5o-123
953 STL-L Weaver -150 -152 No Edge + 70%
954 CIN-T Mahle 138 14 No Edge – No Edge 30% Avg Edge
13-Apr
7:05 PM 9o-117 9o-115
955 COL-K Freeland (L) 161 156 No Edge- Strong Edge 32% slight Edge
956 WAS-T Roark -145 -169 No Edge+ 68%
13-Apr
7:10 PM 8.5o-114 8.5u-115
957 MIL-Z Davies 111 122 No Edge- Strong Edge 27% Slight Edge
958 NYM-S Matz (L) -120 -132 No Edge+ 73%
13-Apr
7:10 PM 8 9
967 TOR-M Stroman 127 115 No Edge + 37% No Edge +
968 CLE-M Clevinger -138 -125 No Edge – No Edge 63%
13-Apr
7:10 PM 9u-114 8
959 PIT-C Kuhl -140 -133 68%
960 MIA-D Peters (L) 129 123 20+ Strong Edge 32% Slight Edge
13-Apr
7:10 PM 8.5u-120 8
979 PHI-V Velasquez -113 -106 67%
980 TB-J Faria 104 -102 No Edge+ No Edge 33% Slight Edge
13-Apr
7:10 PM 9.5o-119 10
969 BAL-C Tillman 168 192 10+ 38% No Edge +
970 BOS-E Rodriguez (L) -183 -210 No Edge 62%
13-Apr
7:10 PM
965 NYY-UNDECIDED
966 DET-M Fiers
13-Apr
8:10 PM 8 8.5
973 TEX-C Hamels (L) 210 210 5+ Avg Edge 36% No Edge +
974 HOU-G Cole -230 -230 64%
13-Apr
8:10 PM
971 CHW-R Lopez
972 MIN-UNDECIDED
13-Apr
8:15 PM 9o-113 9.5u-115
975 LAA-A Heaney (L) Lay off??? -125 -145 15+ 81%
976 KC-J Hammel 115 134 Slight Edge 19% Strong Edge
13-Apr
10:10 PM 7o-117 7o-113
963 ARI-Z Greinke 118 122 66%
964 LAD-K Maeda -128 -132 5+ No Edge 34% Slight Edge
13-Apr
10:10 PM 8 8o-110
977 OAK-A Triggs 102 -108 40% No Edge +
978 SEA-M Leake -110 100 No Edge No Edge 60%
13-Apr
10:10 PM 8u-114 8.5u-110
961 SF-T Blach (L) -105 -108 72%
962 SD-T Ross -103 100 No Edge + No Edge 28% Ave Edge

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

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