Market at the 200 day MA and we have FED day!!!

12:15 Update

A good day for me in the markets. I closed out 3 swing trades this morning with nice profits. 4% in one trade, 1.5% in another and flat on the third. In addition, I made a nice gap trade on the open and finished out with a post FOMC trade for +4% in about an hour. Now I am flat on the day and will wait and see what tomorrow brings. Not a good idea to get locked into this market right now.

Now onto sports:(  A bad day yesterday with my new 1/2 unit plays going 0-5 and to make it worse all 3 NHL plays lost in OT. Then the one full unit play on Vanderbilt +4 lost by 20.

There is only one way to approach the next day after that type of day. Business as usual. Handicap and do what has been successful. Daily results mean nothing. I learned that a long time ago. They do not feel good, to say the least but it comes with the territory. It’s like complaining about being beaten by a 1 outer. It’s going to happen just a question of when!

Should be another busy night tonight with a full slate of games on tap. I will be following up with plays again tonight shortly before game times.

In addition, this drawdown we are having has its merits. As I said yesterday if it’s causing you any concern at all then skip baseball. Use the last two weeks as a filter to determine whether you are ready for 5 months of betting baseball every day. I cannot stress enough that variance is, at least, double of any other sport.  Now I am confident enough in my adjustments I made in baseball during the offseason to put out the money back guarantee as written next to this post.

But that still does not change the variance and whatever your tolerance is. Incredibly during the first week of this downswing I had several subscribers start questioning why I made this play and that play.  One was so rude I invited him not to renew. But this just shows that everyone’s psyche is different. And while I do not expect you to be as conditioned as me towards the ups and downs. Take heed when I say these things. It’s more important to me to have subscribers that are satisfied with the service then ones that are tormenting themselves and cannot handle a loss.

For me when I go through a downswing its merely and academic experience. One to register in my mind with the many that have preceded it:)

I make minor adjustments during the season but all major adjustments are made in the offseason.

Enough rambling for me..time to get back to work on these games tonight!

RickJ

Rickj’s Handicapping Picks

 

Its been quite a rebound and today the Fed again takes center state.  For those of you that love detailed discussions of the dynamics of the Federal Reserve and how it affects monetary policy:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-15/stanley-fischer-and-lael-brainard-are-battling-for-yellen-s-soul

It is a very interesting discussion.

As I write this the market is off 1/4%. Its above the 10 and 50 day MA and right at the 200. That’s the big one. The market is neutral as it has worked off its overbought condition rather quickly through consolidation. Now the question is which way does it go from here? My guess testing new highs for this move. The sentiment is just not bullish enough yet. That would be the indicator to watch right now. When everyone starts getting bullish time to lighten up.

Myself I did put on 3 swing trade longs yesterday and had the discipline to exit and short put that took a beating on the open. If I would have gotten stubborn I would have turned a 3000 loss into an 18000 loss!  But Ackman’s fund it is rumored lost 500 million on the trade yesterday. Sweet!

My strategy today is not to be too long going into the Fed meeting. There is always the risk they get very hawkish but I do not see it especially with the elections coming up in November. Typically the Fed helps the party in power by not making any waves. Which really makes their attitude the first 6 weeks of the year very strange. I am sure the DNC and Clinton were losing sleep over the Fed and perhaps made a few phone calls:)

I am not in a very good mood this morning as my 1st tournament pick went down big time yesterday on Vanderbilt +4. The lost by 20. Then to top it off I turned my setups into 1/2 unit plays and went 0-5 with 3 NHL losses on dogs all in OT with one shootout. Enough whining:) Just another day of sports betting. After wagering for 30+years now I have seen about every permutation of a win and a beat so not much surprises me anymore and I typically take each day in stride.  But it took a long time to mentally get to this place. Human nature fought me every step of the way:)

Ok….that’s it for this morning.

Good Luck in the markets

More on sports a bit later

RickJ

Rickj’s Handicapping Picks

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