Market is heading South Today!!!

12:15 Update

Thursday went 0-1 on our 1 unit plays losing with Villanova U 113.5. It was looking like a win but as often happens in college hoops the team behind big keeps fouling at the end:(. Our 1/2 unit plays went 0-2 both in the NHL and neither were close.

Well the good news is March is over:) How big was our draw down in march?  By my calculation we lost 18.8 units. NCAA Hoops -16.1 NHL -4 and NBA +1.3. Not a pretty month. But far from my worst month. On the bright side for the season we stand at : NCAA Hoops +11 NHL +8.11 NBA +.9 Total +20.1 Units.

No reason to go over drawdowns again as I am sure everyone understands them now:) However +20 units for college and NBA hoops with the NHL is a good season. I will take it every year. Typically Football both college and pro have been the best performers %wise but this last season they both lagged. If we can have a good season in MLB we are on track for a great year. We will see.

I did get several emails the first of which asked whether I was guarnteeing a winning year based upon my thoughts of a typical year. So to make it clear. There are no guarantees. Any particular year the bottom might fall out and what you saw in March could be a mirror of most months of the year. I do not expect it to say the least. However this is gambling. We are winning at one of the most difficult endeavors to win at …beating the books. Very few people can do it. And I will say it again and most likely again and again later …if you do not have a systematic bet sizing that manages risk appropriately you will not win. I could give out 70% winners and you can take it too the bank that if you do not have a method in place that prevents your human side to interfer you will not win. And then even if you do its not a cake walk. Its a grind. pure and simple.

For me its fun. Its challenging. Its a mental excersie that I thourougly enjoy. I do not do it for the money I do it because I love to do it. If your torturing yourself when you have losing streaks then this is not for you. Its supposed to be fun win or lose. Of course winning is much more fun but I can take a brutal downswing and look it over and calmly think about it with no worries about money or worrying about what comes next. That is what you should strive for. If your looking for thrills and living on the edge then take up skydiving! But gambling is not the area for that mindset.

So now that we are clear to be on the safe side take a look at the Must read section of the site. It explains everything much clearer then I can do right now.

The other emails I have been exchanging with a subscriber has to do with the opening line vs the closing line as to predictive value. Its an interesting discussion that I will share with everyone when I have a bit more time. These are the types of discussions I enjoy having. At the end of the discussion both of use should learn a bit from it!

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

The bounce of the last few days is likely to get reversed today as the market keeps dropping going into the open. News? You could look anywhere in the world including the U.S. and see events that could make market participants nervous. Russia seeks to double its nuclear warheads, N. Korea says its ready to Nuke Manhattan, Iran keeps testing intercontinental missiles, as a reward the U.S. seeks to give Iran access to our financial system, another police officer just got shot down yesterday, violence is promised at the Republican National Convention and no Democratic leader speaks out. I could go on and on but it would take several days to list all the triggers and even then I would not get them all.

But we can look at sentiment and get some respite that many market participants are expecting this move to end fairly soon. That usually means another run higher. Seasonally we also tend to move higher in April. So which way do we go? Are the markets resilient enough to withstand the external turmoil taking place? We will see:)

Myself my thinking is that as long as the central banks around the world are satisfied flooding liquidity into the system the markets will be fine. When that stops it isn’t going to be pretty. How to time it? I doubt there will be any warning. But a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money. The start of 2016 is just a taste of what’s in store.

Meanwhile, our job is to make money in any market. Not an easy assignment but an interesting and fun one none the less. Most of what happens in the World is beyond our control so best to leave that to the brilliant minds that got us in this place and focus on what we can control.

I placed one day trade yesterday for a small gain. I am looking to find another today. It’s way too early for mean reversion trading as we are not close to the extremes now in either direction. We are in an area now that is the toughest to trade.

You can follow my trades by following @rickjswings. Its free and hopefully will give you some ideas on trading. In addition, of course, I am always here trading and handicapping. So just send me an email if you have any questions.

And almost forgot we have the final four this weekend and MLB in 3 days. What could be better than that!

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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