Did you survive the plunge yesterday? Its days like that where you have to control your panic instincts. Everyone has them. But if your methodical in your methods and have good solid money management, they are just a blip in the scheme of things.
If you trade randomly and have no money management those types of days can put you out of action.
This morning so far we are getting a rebound premarket with futures up anywhere from 1/2 to 1%.
@CL is +.5%, TLT is -1/4% and Vix.x is -11%. That is a solid positive premarket configuration.
The market is oversold quite a bit right now. I have my 1/4 position in SPY from last week and am looking on adding to it this morning with another 1/4.
Also, I will be looking for some swing trades today. But typically on drops like this, you do not get a V-shaped recovery. At some point, the low is tested and you want to see a lower low. But in a news-driven market, anything goes.
On the political front its as ugly as it gets. So bad, that I am trying to cut my exposure to the madness. With the Democrat Presidential candidates to a person trying to blame the two mass shootings on the President for political gain and the unhinged calls for gun control, its a good time to take a break.
I saw a very good saying on the internet yesterday. ” You do not fix evil people by taking innocent people’s rights away. “
My view is to address the problem rather than letting politicians use tragedies like this to further their agenda. There are many real experts that can give solutions. But politicians and the hysterical public would be the last to have the right solution.
On the geopolitical front, things just keep getting hotter. China cut its currency, and the U.S. declared them a currency manipulator. China has cut off purchases of agricultural products from the U.S. Now, where this ends is anyone’s guess.
The problem is China has had free reign with the U.S. in prior administrations. Most of the U.S. politicians have made millions off of deals with China. In exchange, they have looked the other way while China has stolen intellectual property rights, and infiltrated many of the U.S. Media companies.
Trying to fix this is going to take more than Trump’s one or two terms. And if history is a guide, once Trump is gone it will be back to business as usual. So, China has no incentive to negotiate seriously, as the corruption in the U.S. is at record levels and they know it.
For the markets, this means that the chances of a trade deal with China are very slim. And that means much more volatility and also that Trump is going to have a hurdle to overcome in 2020. One of the many roadblocks that are set up to derail him potentially.
The odds right now are a little less than 50/50 that he has a 2nd term. I view it at about 2 to 1 in his favor. But, there is a long way to go and if the economy goes south, things could well change.
If Trump loses in 2020, get ready to short this market. As we will be looking at increased regulation, business’s back to leaving the U.S., and that is the best that will happen.
I have also received quite a few emails about my NFL special. I have not sent it out yet. I have yearly subscribers and I want to make sure that the special does not cut into the value of subscribing yearly. So it will be a few more days.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks