The markets have had a nice rebound from the bottom hitting the 50% retracement area on Friday. It is due for a breather as the rebound as been almost a straight line to the upside.
A massive stimulus is being interjected into the financial system by the Fed and the President has gotten his wish. Interest rates are now down to 0. This has helped but the key at this point is the White House’s decision as to Americans returning to work. The longer they wait the higher the risk.
You would think this would be a rather easy decision to make. However, everything about this virus has been politicized at this point. So everyone involved is pushing their own agenda. The actual facts mean nothing at this point to many of them.
You can see this in the way they report the cause of death, the demand on the hospitals, the death rate, and even potential treatments. All subject to politics.
One thing is certain, no matter what decision the President makes his opponents are going to quickly say it was the wrong one. That you can bet on.
When it gets to the point where promising drug treatments are demonized because the President suggests they may work, then you know something is terribly wrong.
At this point, the evidence is overwhelming that Hydrochloroquine, Azithromycin , and Zinc 220 can save lives if given early. But, the media has all but said these were dangerous, some Democrat governors have restricted their use so that a doctor cannot prescribe this in an outpatient setting. Why? Because President Trump suggested these drugs may work.
Lives are now being lost because of politics.
For investing I have been doing very little. The swings are just too large right now to do any kind of swing trading. Day trading requires intense concentration behind the computer screen for long hours. I do not have the motivation right now to do that.
However, since Sports betting has dried up, I started doing some research on profitable option trade setups. As it turns out I have come up with an options trading strategy that has worked with almost no drawdown since I implemented it in real-time.
So far I have had 73 trades. 65 winners and 8 losers. A win rate of 89.04%. A profit factor of 7.33
Just to get a perspective a profit factor of over 2.0% is a viable system.
This is the graph of the trades. As you can see almost no drawdown:) Now, once we get to the 1000 trade mark this will mean a bit more then it does now. But so far so good.
I send my trades out to everyone that subscribes to my sports service that wishes them. it is part of the service. Right now all my subscriptions are on pause and will be taken off pause once sports starts up again. But in the meantime, if you are a subscriber, you get these trades. If you were to subscribe now, your subscription would be paused immediately, and you would get these at no cost.
If you have any questions regarding these, you can send me an email (firstname.lastname@example.org) and I will be happy to answer any questions.
To sign up:
- go to web site and pick the monthly option under the Paypal dropdown menu (they all have a 3 day free trial)
- I will immediately pause your subscription so the free trial starts when it is reopened
- I will then give you the details on how to get the trades. Right now they are sent out via VIBER.
Its been awhile so lets take a look at the political odds:
Biden 82/18 +5 Pts
Sanders 1/99 -5 Pts
Clinton 4/96 No Change
Cuomo 6/94 No Change
Looks about right. I still have some doubts Biden is going to be the nominee:)
Dem VP Nomination:
Harris 32/68 +3 Pts
Klobuchar 25/75 -2 Pts
Abrams 6/94 -3 Pt
Warren 8/92 +1 Pt
Masto 5/95 -10 Pts
Whitmer: 13/67 +7 Pts
Again, I have no opinion on who might get the VP nod.
Trump 52/43 + 3 Pts I have a small amount of equity on my wager getting 45/55
Biden 43/57 +2 Pts
Trump pulling back ahead as he should be right now.
Control of the Presidency: Dems 50/50 -3 Pts
Again I believe the value is in the Republicans
Control of the House:
74/26 Democrats: +4 Pts( I took 3 to 1)
I like the Republicans here. I rate it a tossup whether they regain the House.
Although the better wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”
Control of the Senate:
60/40 in favor of the Republicans -1 Pts
Republicans back on the move here.
Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 88/12 +3 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1
Then numbers I see this weekend still to me make it close whether the U.S. will fall into a recession. Getting 4 to 1 gives me a nice cushion on the wager.
One wager I am watching for is Collins vs Loeffler. I want to get down on Collins. I liked him before Loeffler imploded with her stock trades, but now the price might be too high. Anything close to even money would be a gift.
There are some other interesting new entrants on the political wager board. I will go over these in a future post.
That’s it for today,
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks