A top 10 matchup at 4:
Betting is 51% on the Home dog Xavier with the line moving from -1 Xavier to -1 Villanova. My models show the game to be a tossup and the betting certainly does not lead to any clues that I can see. Variables slightly favor Xavier but not enough for me to call it a play or a setup. I am passing on the game.
Tuesday we had one play and it won with Missouri +10.5. That brings us to 3-0 the last two days for +3.40 units. Start of a nice little streak. Our setups went 1-2.
With a full slate of college games tonight I suspect we will have a busier time tonight with plays and setups.
I had an interesting discussion with a subscriber this morning that I would like to share. I think it has quite a bit of educational value for subscribers and others that take a look at what I have to say from time to time. These are the type of give and take discussions I have from time to time with subscribers and one of the reasons I enjoy what I do.
It’s an interesting back and forth and I believe answers quite a few questions about the approach to take to handicapping and wagering in general. As always I welcome any comments or questions!
“Rick.. Private question : how much do you bet as a unit, in a very round about number? Is it hundreds? Thousands ? Just curious.
I’ve been keeping unit size the same but I always want to make the NHL plays 1/2 unit. Is that bad ?
Thanks in advance”
My 1st response:
“I really do not give out my betting amounts. It’s private and each person has to decide what is best for them. I can help you in determining your bet sizing however and also can answer about whatever question you ask except my personal betting amounts.
My recommendation is to use the same % of your bankroll for all sports. That way you do not have to guess which sport is going to be doing well at any particular time. I would concentrate not on which sports to pick and choose but on having multiple outs where you can get the best possible line on the game.
I know it’s tempting to pick and choose. It’s that human nature thing I talk about from time to time. If your bet sizing the way I recommend the entire process becomes easier. Then you can focus on what is important that will actually improve your EV.
Its very similar to being selective in whether to sit down at a particular poker table. You do not realize how important being selective is until you start playing 50 hours a week for years. Then a light goes off and you understand what you have read.
Its the same thing for bet sizing and getting multiple outs. ”
“Yes that’s what I was thinking. Is there any easy way to look up your week by week win rate? I find the site hard to navigate, and especially more since the changes lately. It doesn’t seem like you have had a losing week since you started your subscription service. ”
My Response 2:
“Yes, I think you are correct. Very little drawdown. That’s really what you should look for in a service of any type whether it’s the stock market or handicapping.
As far as checking week by week? You could go back 7 days and compare the record then to what it is now. Or you can just look at the record now and see month to month without any trouble.
The drop down menu on the right side of the page has records going all the way back to 2005! And I have made them easier to read and get to by putting each sport together. For 5 years you can go back with the drop down menu. Before that you will have to look in the archives which I agree is not very easy.
But the last 5 years should be all you need to evaluate the different sports. As I make changes in my methods as I go to take into consideration the changes the books make in putting out the lines. ”
“Thanks Rick. Right now my psychology is what’s screwing me up. Bad bet sizing, increasing size after a loss, etc. I appreciate your insights.”
My response 3:
“You are not alone! And I can tell you from my own experience I fought with that for years before the light went on.
Just set aside an amount that you can afford to lose in its entirety. For an example, let’s say it’s 10,000. Start out by taking 2% of that as your bet size. So you will start out betting 200.00 a game. As your bankroll rises and falls your bet size will also rise and fall with it. If the amount you set aside is 5,000 then your starting bet size is 100.00.
This not only takes the human element out of the picture. But also gives you the best chance at dealing with variance. Variance is the enemy of every positive Ev gambler. If you do not deal with it in the right manner you cannot win in the long run.
Now if you cannot do the above the best choice is to quit until you have your mind right. I, of course, want to keep a subscriber but not at the expense of you losing money. My goal is that everyone that subscribes to this service makes money year in and year out. ”
Their final comment:
“Yes, that’s great to hear. I will adhere to the rules from now on.
Thank you again. ”
Look out below. As I explained yesterday the worst case scenario for me was a move down without breaking the 50 day MA as it would not allow me to position long. So what happens? As is often the case the markets do not make it easy for you. However, I outsmarted them a bit and went short the banking index which so far this morning has a gain of about 4% on the trade.
I do not know right off hand the news out overnight to precipitate this gap down but it is most likely the usual suspects. Although briefly going over the news this morning it looks like our Treasury Secretary had to chime in and announce that do not expect the U. S. to go along with providing liquidity. Always comforting after the Fed already has savaged the markets.
Be prepared for some of the worst months you can ever imagine at least until we get a new administration taking over our government. Not that it will be any better but frankly I am unable to see how it could be much worse right now. Now I am not making any political statement whatsoever. I am an independent who could care less what party is in power as long as competent people are calling the shots. Now if you do not believe what I am saying here just check back in November.
My only purpose is for you to be aware and not get stubborn in this market. Most of you have never seen a huge meltdown and while the first six months of the year was not pleasant it is a blip as to what could be on the horizon unless we get our act together and quickly.
Now that’s my good news for a Wednesday morning. And as always I am in a good mood as my one college hoop play from Tuesday covered. Missouri +10.5 was a winner:) So we begin a nice run in sports wagers +3.40 the last two days!
My plan right now is to keep the banking short on for now and look for some other short term setups. But I do not want to overstay my position since as you can see these rallies can be very vicious and sudden. It’s the making profits out of the middle of moves that is making money right now. Let’s see how long I can continue:)
Good Luck Today in the markets
Private Twitter: Rick_sports