The markets are weak this morning about 15 min before the open. -1/5% on the average for the indexes with the Nasdaq leading the way. TLT +15% @CL+75% and Vix.x +3.14%
This is a lightly negative premarket. I would be comfortable playing some sort of gap fill trade today over a continuation trade. But you need to have a proven method that you use.
Congress is back and its more of the same, almost as if they hadn’t left. I decided to take a look at the betting odds of Congress passing USMCA by the end of the year. The odds are 3 to 1 against. If I had to wager on it I would easily lay the 3 to 1:)
That means no relief for the many people that would have benefited from this trade agreement. And if it does not pass this year what are the odds it will pass in an election year? Answer: Virtually no chance.
Top on the agenda is gun control. It’s a politically hot issue. So hot even the Republicans are starting to move on it. Myself, I am a 2nd amendment advocate. It’s in the constitution and unless they have the votes to remove it from the constitution its the law of the land.
As I see it Congress is doing everything but solving the problem. But that is not unusual, as that is typically how they operate. There are a number of things that could be done to make the US safer. But none fit the political narrative. So they go with band-aids that will do nothing, and the outrage will continue as the shootings continue. At least the outrage over everything but the gang violence in the major cities that are taking its toll daily on Americans. Or the lack of outrage of the rapes and killings caused by illegals in this country that have been protected by the courts and sanctuary cities.
I am neither a Republican or a Democrat. I look at the issues logically with no ideological bias. I am far from always right. But I get it right more often than not:)
What this means for the stock market is much more volatility. As the hysteria that has encompassed DC is spilling over to every day Americans.
I talked about shorting a stock a few weeks ago, and I have a few new ones.
Google: they are in the crosshairs of the DOJ and it’s just going to get worse for them as I see it.
Then you have the four or five that have decided to jump into the gun debate. Walmart is the one I suggested shorting before, but there are new ones that have joined in. I doubt they take as big a hit as Walmart, but I would look them over. I do not have the list handy but it is easy to find.
This will not be an immediate gratification trade. But one that will most likely show up in earnings 1 of 2 reports down the road.
As I have said before if your a swing trader you have not been having an easy time of it. Very few that I know are making any easy money right now. Myself, I am grinding along, taking my stops and waiting until we get back to the best time of the year. That begins Nov 1.
One chart to watch is :
As long as the Nasdaq is leading to the downside the upside potential is historically limited. Watch for this to reverse for the next upward blast in the markets.
In the NFL last night I had Oakland as a play that I sent out to subscribers. Here is my write up:
|481 DEN-J Flacco||43||-3+102||44||-3-101||69%|
|482 OAK-D Carr||43.5u-107||42.5u-100||-3-104||43u-115||Strong Edge||Strong Edge||Avg Edge||31%|
This is a game you do not see very often. At Cris the line opened Oakland -3 and is now -3 Denver without any injuries. That is probably the biggest move I have seen.
At +3 there is no way you cannot bet on Oakland tonight. I know Oakland stinks. And you have to hold your nose to bet them. But, what you have to do handicapping is forget the name of the team. Just bet the numbers. And the numbers tonight at +3 make Oakland the best wager of the weekend.
Week 1 has not been kind to me. But it could have been a lot worse:) It was looking like I might go 0-5 at one point. But I have had much worse days than yesterday, and in the scheme of things with everything seeming to go wrong, I am only 0-1-1 on plays and 2-3 in the contest.
Let’s see if we can make it up tonight a bit on Oakland. Even if it loses, I will have no remorse about betting this game. I would bet this each and every time it came up.
I put out an analysis like this on every college football and NFL game for the season.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks