Markets are gaping up again this morning as we start a new week. The indexes are up about 1/4% 20 min before the open. TLT -1% Vix.x unchanged @CL +.8%. This is slightly positive premarket, I would like to see vix.x a lot lower before I would think there would be a decent move to the upside.
Although @CL and TLT certainly are supportive of it.
Not much in the way of news over the weekend. Congress is back, and first on the agenda is the House with there impeachment talks. Not the border, not the trade deals, but get Trump. So, nothing has changed.
My guess is it will be non stop chaos, as the political establishment has had six weeks to scheme. The only good thing is they are not the brightest and typically it shows in their failures.
But in the meantime, important work like the trade deal between the US, Mexico, and Canada will be put on hold. I doubt anything will get passed before the 2020 elections. DC is broken beyond repair at this point.
Now whether this eventually takes its toll on the markets remains to be seen. As long as Trump stays focused and the Fed accommodative the US will stay strong on the economic front, despite the politicians.
It was just a few weeks ago that the left and the media were non stop recession. With the recent rally in the stock market, they are now silent. However, rest assured, the next pullback in the markets will bring them out of the woodwork again. Russia Russia Russia is long gone now, and its whatever they can dream up to get Trump defeated in 2020, no matter what the pain and cost.
That is the state of politics in the US these days. Not a pretty sight. In the meantime enjoy the rally and stay grounded in reality.
Recession is nowhere in sight at this point. The odds of a recession in the next year are less than 50%. Remember the stock market tends to be a leading indicator for a coming recession.
I have a number of swing trades on right now and will be managing them closely.
Football is in gear now and I am off to a slow start:) In College football on my plays I am 3-2 and in the NFL this weekend went 0-1-1. In the two contests I am in I went 2-3 in one and 2-2-1 in the other. The difference was the Carolina game. I had +3 in one contest and +2.5 in the other. It was looking grim but Indiana and Arizona came through for the 2 wins. They both could have gone the other way.
Two NFL games tonight, and I will have a write up for subscribers out later in the day.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
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Good Luck Today
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