Markets gaping up from 1/5th to almost 1/2% this morning led by the Nasdaq. That is usually a good sign when the Nasdaq leads. TLT is -1.11% GLD +1/10th % Crude +1/2% Vix.x is off 1.4%
This is a positive pre-market configuration. Watch vix.x for chances of another trend day to the upside.
For those of you that are new to trading, this is what a bull market looks like:) They do not last forever, but the markets have everything going for it right now. Low-interest rates, Fed liquidity, Phase 1 of China trade deal, USMCA passing, Lowest unemployment across all classes in 50 years. And there is more:)
The only negative is politics. That is it. It is obvious the political system in the U.S. is badly broken. Its become a zero-sum game. Survival of the fittest. Anything goes. That is what U.S. politics has sunk to.
It’s gone from respectful opposition to destroy the opposition at all costs. The media has jumped onto this bandwagon for the left. And unfortunately, only 1 side is fighting this way. The Republicans gentlemen that they are, refuse to fight back.
I have always said, you let the other side set the rules, and then you play by them. What could be fairer than that? Trump plays by those rules. But very few Republicans have the courage to fight back.
An encouraging sign was Martha McSally yesterday tell a CNN reporter that she was not going to answer his questions because he was a hack:) Now this is what I would expect more of from the Republicans. If they all did this the party and the people would be better off.
But that is idealistic thinking. After all, they are members of the human race. I have always said to my subscribers over the years that your biggest opponent will be yourself. Human nature will sabotage you at every step. It is the same in politics.
You can see this with the upcoming trial in the Senate. Before hearing any part of either side of the case, 5 Republican Senators have announced they want to hear from more witnesses? Can you imagine?
Now each is motivated by different considerations. Romney is never Trumper. It matters not what the issue. He is going to be anti-Trump. Fairness and truth mean nothing to him. After all, he supports Antifa. McCowsky voted against Kavanaugh. That is all you need to know about her. Something is off with her. Collins, a do-gooder. Has no business being in the Senate. She is letting her personal opinions interfere with good sense. The other two, I imagine Never Trumpers.
So, even after the star chamber in the House, after the rules are clear the case is to be decided on the record in the House, you have 5 Senators that are going to be a fly in the ointment to what should be a speedy conclusion to this travesty. But it is what it is:)
Let’s look at the political odds as there are some new odds posted that are interesting:
Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 12/88 +1 Pts (This is the one to watch) Was at .07/.93
I took the 9/91 a few days ago. I laid it off yesterday at .10 for a 10% gain. After the Parnas news did not move the markets I decided it was time.
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 90/10 -2 Pts (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs
Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having lost any edge they had a month ago. (If Trump is not at the head of the party the Republicans have virtually no chance of keeping the Presidency or the Senate, they will lose all 3)
Control of the House after 2020: Dems 72/28 -1 Pt ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet. A better wager will be to bet against every incumbent house member that voted to impeach in 2020 that reside in states that Trump carried. That will be around 30 wagers. You will probably get +odds on most on the open, and I cannot see losing over 50% with the potential over winning over 60% of them. This is probably the best wager that will come around in a long time.
Except of course for the Netanyahu wager, I made 100% on a few months ago:)
That was a wager where very few understood how Israel elections worked. You were getting a nice price on a wager that had the wrong favorite.
Control of the Senate after 2020: 71/29 Republicans. -1 Pt
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 51/49 No Change
Warren: 5/85 – 1 Pt
Biden: 21/79 -1 Pts
Buttigieg 6/84 +1 Pts
Sanders 23/77 +2 Pts
Bloomberg 7/83 +1 Pt
Clinton 1/99 -1 Pt ( She is fading fast)
These are pretty meaningless right now the way the Democrats pick their candidate. Essentially, whoever the party leaders want the party leaders get. And they do not want Sanders. My guess is a brokered convention and a new name appears. I would say the odds are 50/50 that the Democrat nominee is not on the list of candidates right now.
Several new lines of interest:
Romney vote to convict: 24/76
Collins Vote to convict 14/86
Sasse Vote to convict: 9/91
Murkowski vote to convict: 18/82
Jones Vote to convict: 19/81
Manchin vote to convict: 36/64
Senate GOP vote to convict Trump: 0 is 62/38
1 is 16/84
2 is 10/90
3 is 5/95
4 is 5/95
5 or more 10/90
What is interesting is that the odds are that Romney is more likely then Jones to convict:) Also, Murkowski was higher than Romney yesterday
Watch the conviction odds every day to get an idea of where things are at. It is very unlikely they get the votes needed to convict. However, the Senate is a snakepit. Do not be surprised if this turns out closer then you think. If the odds start getting close to 3 to 1 against conviction its time to start paying attention.
RickJs Handicapping Picks