Markets gaping up, A major shift in balance of power in the U.S. at hand, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Wednesday morning

The overnight markets are off their highs but still are looking to gap up almost 1/2%. @CL +1.4% Vix.x -4.36% TLT +.34%

IWM is lagging about unchanged. This to me is a slightly positive configuration. Remember today is Fed day. So, around 11 PST the fed will announce rate changes. Then consensus seems to be they will leave rates alone, even though the President is encouraging them to lower rates.

My thought is with the Corona Virus, Impeachment proceedings and all the other uncertainties that abound us, The Fed should err on the side of liquidity. And they have been. Although rates are not going lower, they have been flooding liquidity into the markets.

Markets being what they are you will get all kinds of speculation as to what is on the Feds mind and why. I would not bother with that, just watch how the market reacts and turn off the pundits who get it wrong most of the time.

I exited all my virus trades for a nice gain on most. And now have entered some other swing trades that are a bit more mainstream:) Three are showing a nice gain premarket while the other is underwater.

I have picked up my swing trading a bit, but I am still cognizant of the political risks in the market. So I am keeping a tight leash on the swing trading.

Today is the question day in the impeachment trial. One thing I have noticed is the Senators seemed to have not listened to one word the President’s defense team put on. It was logic-based, based upon sound legal principles, yet the Senators insist on keeping politics into the mix.

What I am observing is an erosion of the power of the executive branch. Make no mistake this will not stop with President Trump. Regardless of who is President, they will now be held hostage by Congress and the intelligence community.

This is a very dangerous shift in the U.S. The Executive branch is an independent branch with responsibilities for the safety of the American people. Once the transformation is complete, what Hamilton feared will be in full force. The control of the executive branch by Congress. This has been coming for a long time now.

Congress is out of control, as are the intelligence communities. What they want are puppets that will do their bidding. Something President Trump is not. So, they want him out. And make no mistake, both Democrats and Republicans want him out. He is interfering with their ability to make money. And for them, nothing could be more serious.

You do not have to be a rocket scientist to figure out what is going on. The Fake Dossier has been proven a hoax, and it has been established there was no predicate to spy on Trump and his team. Yet Congress is uninterested. Not only that they had their two-year investigation in the Senate.

So the IG report comes out and crickets. No calls for investigations, no outcry. Just more investigations of Trump.

Then we get the Ukraine hoax. Just another version of the Fake dossier. So, the House gets its members to impeach in a star chamber proceeding where much of the evidence to this day is not known by house members that voted to impeach. But then we get to the Senate ( The voice of reason):)

And wouldn’t you know it, Republicans want to hear from witnesses. They do not care about the lack of due process in the House. They could care less that Schiff did not send the entire record over to them. There have been no calls for Atkinson’s testimony. But, of course, when an NYT report comes out based upon thirdhand information about some transcript that was being written by Bolton, they are all over it.

Not the Atkinson transcript, Not the rule change that allowed a fake Whistleblower, not the fact that Schiff orchestrated this entire hoax, but a news report based upon no first-hand knowledge.

It would be comical if it was not so serious. As I said, you do not have to be a rocket scientist to figure out what is occurring. But American complacency what it is Americans will sit like deers in headlights and watch with amazement as this unfolds. Doing nothing, saying nothing.

I am going this dialogue here as there is much more and the market is only 30 min before the open. But what is happening in the Senate is very similar to what occurred in the House. It is shaping up as a real screwing for this President. Now some may be very happy about this. If your a Dem or a never Trumper you are probably rooting them on.

But, it will not stop here. The repercussions of what is occurring now will affect the U.S. for generations. Do you really only want 2 branches of government? Do you really want a media that is in bed with one political party? Do you really want Congress to call all the shots, knowing they are beholden to not only special interest groups in the U.S. but also foreign countries?

Think long and hard, as the next time it will be your candidate on the receiving end. Pandora’s box has been opened, and they will not be able to shut it again.

For trading today I plan on looking for some more short term swings. If I have time I will post on my private twitter feed my thoughts. But for subscribers to my sports service, I will send them all my trades.

Looking over the political odds the chance of conviction in the Senate has no moved from 9 to 1 against.

The chance of Bolton testifying has dropped to 6 to 4 against.

Romney is still the most likely person to vote to convict Trump in the Republican party at 3 to 1 against. Murkowski sits behind him at 4 to 1 against.

The odds of the Senate Subpoena witnesses by Feb 7th is 55 to 45 against.

Republicans have moved to 52 to 48 to win the presidency in 2020.

Trump is 9 to 1 in favor of getting the Republican nomination

The Maine Senate race is almost dead even. Collins is taking the very worst approach she could take, by waffling on this witness issue. Trump supporters are likely to stay home as she has no primary challenge. Without them, she cannot win.

If she ends up voting for witnesses betting against her is not a bad wager in my opinion.

So far not much has changed. I will watch the numbers and keep you posted. Forget the media, watch the odds:)

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Have a great day trading:)


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Skye: riccja

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