The roller coaster ride continues. The stock market after a monster day on Monday up 5%, then falling 2.5% on Tuesday is now gaping up 2.5% today.
TLT is -.16% @CL +1.72% GLD +.69% Vix.x -12%
This is a strong pre-market but not as strong as it appears based upon the indexes. Vix could be a larger drop and so could TLT.
But nonetheless still positive.
It is looking more and more to me like a V-shaped recovery. The Fed lowered rates by 1/2 a point. Betting late than never. My guess is there are more cuts coming. And most likely more asset purchases on the open market.
Supply chains are at risk and it requires legislation to allow less regulation for a business to fill them.
I expect the Senate to balk, as the House has slow-rolled Corona Virus funding. Everything is political now, so rather than getting bent out of shape every day, accept it.
No one knows how all this is going to wash out. What we do know is there are going to be disruptions. Most of which will be fueled by ignorance.
Some will be fueled by the intentional spreading of fear. Nothing ever gets solved with fear. That is why the media is pumping up fear 24/7. Then you have the Congresswoman from Colorado announcing if she gets the Coronavirus she will be at every Trump Rally.
Now, I do now care what your political leaning is. But, if you approve of this, get some psychiatric help fast. This person should have been removed from the State House by the end of the day.
What are her plans? To try to murder every Trump supporter? That borders on 70 million Americans now. She is no different than ISIS at this point and should be treated that way.
Super Tuesday is now past and its clear that the Dems are headed toward a brokered convention. That means after the first ballot, it will be anyone’s guess. That is how I see it.
Neither Obama or Clinton has jumped on board with Biden. So I expect they have something in the works. There has been speculation Clinton might get the nomination or Michelle Obama.
Rest assured, they are not going to pin their hopes on Biden if they can help it. The original task was to get rid of Sanders. Now, they will work on getting Biden.
I have some wagers going right now, I bet against Sanders and that is looking very good right now. I also bet against Session, and that is looking good. I hedged a small amount on Bloomberg and Clinton.
Let’s take a look at the political odds this morning:
The Dem nomination odds are stacking up as follows:
Sanders 7/93 -21 Pts
Bloomberg 1/99 -11 Pts
Biden 78/22 +49 Pts
Warren 1/99 -4
Clinton 1/99 +4 Pts
I have several wagers going. I wagered against Sanders( That is looking excellent now( and placed a wager on Bloomberg and Clinton. I skipped Biden. This is the most likely wagering to end up with a positive EV. It all hinges on the DNC screwing Sanders. To me, I view that as a certainty.
The Presidential winner odds are:
Trump 54/46 +1 Pt
Sanders 6/94 -21 Pt
Bloomberg 1/99 -5 Pts
Biden 39/41 +19 Pts
Warren 1/99 -2 Pts
Trump is staying a bit over 50 % while Biden is the front-runner for the Dems.
Control of the Presidency:
57/43 Republicans (A new high)
Control of the House after 2020
60/40 in favor of the Dems. This has come down from 5 to 2. The value is pretty much gone on this wager, yet, I plan on wagering against the “dirty 30” across the board. They will all be incumbents, so most likely the odds will be even money to getting plus odds. I cannot see ending up behind when the smoke clears. At the worst half will lose. And at the best close to a clean sweep.
This is the best value of all heading into 2020.
Control of the Senate after 2020
73/27 in favor of the Republicans. This seems about right. I do not like either side of this wager.
Another wager I will be looking at is whether Graham wins the SC primary. As it stands now there is no line and not likely to be one.
Collins has no primary opponent and Maine is a tough state to handicap. So there is no wager there.
I would like to see a line come out on whether Romney finishes his term. Utah is on the warpath, and I could foresee something happening on that one. But until a line comes out it makes for interesting speculation.
Another line I like is taking the Republicans to win the Alabama Senate seat. You have to lay 11 to 1 but I put the line at 100 to 1. That is a pretty good overlay.
An interesting line change is Ratcliffe is now 4 to 1 to be confirmed by the Senate. It was a brilliant maneuver by Trump to put Grenell in as acting director. He could serve up to 220 days without Senate approval.
Now Burr has agreed to Ratcliffe. What is interesting is Grenell has given up his ambassadorship to Germany. Which to me means he will stay in with Ratcliffe in some capacity. What you are seeing is a shift where Trump is having some control over the Senate.
I am not sure they get 54 votes in the Senate. There are still enough weak Republicans in the Senate to kill the Ratcliffe nomination. Collins, Murkowski, Romney to name a few.
That about covers it:) I am open to questions via email or skype.
You can follow the political odds at predictit.org
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks