The Markets are gaping up this morning lead by the Nasdaq at .4%, @CL is +.10%, TLT unchanged, and vix.x off about 3/4%.
This is a slightly positive pre-market configuration. I do not anticipate much volatility until Congress gets back in earnest after the first of the year. Then I expect Chaos.
The market has discounted the impeachment fiasco as it expects little to no chance of it getting anywhere in the Senate. However, just yesterday Murkowski felt compelled to go on CNN of all places to criticize McConnell. My guess is that it is as far as it is going to go. But you never know with Republicans. They find a way to lose.
But so far the Republicans are holding strong in the Senate, with Murkowski being the only Republican Senator that is expressing her displeasure over McConnell and therefore sides with the likes of Schumer and Kristol. Not a pair I would want to be associated with in any lifetime.
But you could have seen this coming, as she was the sole vote in the Republican party against Kavanaugh. Her mask came off then, and now this just confirms she is being controlled by people that want to bring down this government.
I have heard people express the opinion that Collins and Romney are next. I hesitate to think that will be the situation. Collins is running in 2020 and it would be the end for her if she sides with Murkowski. Romney is not running for another 4 years, and no doubt he would love to stick it to Trump. But, he knows, that it is a fools errand at this point. I am betting he goes with McConnell. Unless he is dumber then I thought.
But make no mistake if we get a few more people in the Senate that side with Murkowski, this market is going to take a nosedive. Even the hint of a battle in the Senate is going to crash this market. I would watch Burr. He is the most likely to join Murkowski. He is not running again and has lead the Senate Intelligence Committee on a 2 year time and money-wasting endeavor. Knowing that the entire thing was a hoax from the start.
On the investing front, I am staying conservative until all this chaos is behind us. I have made money on this upswing but not near what I could have being conservative:) Right now I am concentrating on income trades,(covered calls and naked put selling), with a few short term swings.
Now onto the political odds:
Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 10/90 -1 Pts (This is the one to watch) Staying at the lows.
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 90/10 +4 Pts (Another one to watch) A new high
Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having lost any edge they had a month ago.
Control of the House after 2020: Dems 73/27 +3 Pts ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet.
Control of the Senate after 2020: 72/28 Republicans. (+3 Pts) I would lay the 2 to 1 here but the overlay is not as great as I see it as in taking the odds on the House race.
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 48/52 +1 Pts ( A new High)
Warren: 6/84 -2 Pts
Biden: 23/77 +4 Pts
Buttigieg 7/83 -2 Pts
Sanders 17/83 +2 Pts
Bloomberg 6/84 +1 Pt
Clinton 2/98 -4 Pts
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 39/61 -4 Pts I laid 38/62 ( My wager is right at where I bought into it. My plan to lay it off with a 20% quick gain is not working out so well)
I think the best wager right now is to take the 9 to 1 that Trump gets convicted in the Senate. Not that I think this will happen, but I expect at the very least some drama, which should give you an easy opportunity to buy the wager back at .20 doubling your money.
The only reason I have not done this is I cannot tell what happens if the House does not send the articles onto the Senate. If it is a push I would wager right now, If not I will wait until that happens. As that adds a variable that I do not want to be in the equation.
Another decent wager right now is betting against the Dems keeping the House. You can get over 2 to 1, which in my judgment is a nice overlay. A better wager might be to be against every incumbent in the House that voted for impeachment. My guess is when the lines come out you will have many of these wagers at plus odds. There will be close to 30 of them, and I would expect to win at least 60% of them.
These lines will come out after the primary. And I will have a write up on these shortly after. I plan on doing that.
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Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks