We are about 30 min before the open and the markets are gapping lower.
TLT +1/4%, @CL +.60% and Vix.x +9.59%
That is a negative premarket, except for @CL. So I do not expect a big down day today unless we see bonds stronger and @CL weaken. Those are what I will be watching this morning.
The Fed starts its meeting today with a decision tomorrow around 11 PST. Expectations are for a cut:) As I said I am a skeptic but the prevailing view is 1/4 and in some instance 1/2 a point cut.
If we get a big down day today I will be looking to add some SPY before the close for a short term trade. Otherwise, this morning will be more about managing existing trades. Those have dwindled somewhat as I exited a number of trades yesterday.
The gap down is primarily related to the China trade negotiations. Not much progress is being made. And it’s more to China’s detriment. Companies are leaving China and I expect the exit to get worse. I think they have miscalculated the White House’s resolve.
Also, we have the Democrat debates tonight. I expect the common theme from the candidates will be how Trump is a racist. I doubt there will be many solutions proposed on the problems Americans are facing. But I may be surprised.
I received some emails regarding my predictions as to the odds of Trump having a 2nd term:) I plan on doing a write up on this, but until then I believe the betting line right now is way off. One of my assumptions is that the polling is not representative of what reality is.
Its a controversial topic, but the perfect example was 2016 where the polls gave Clinton almost a certain win. I think most of the pollsters said Trump had no path to a win.
In any event, if my assumption is incorrect, most likely the odds I put out are incorrect:) But a detailed report will be out soon discussing this wager.
I expect more volatility as the norm. So be sure and take that into consideration when position sizing.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks