I guess no one can argue that not only did we break out yesterday, but it was a strong follow-through day:)
This morning an hour before the open the markets are gapping up around .4% with TLT +.10 @CL -1.55% and Vix.x -3.2%.
A mixed bag premarket. We also have the jobs report coming out in 15 min. That has the potential to be market moving. Right now the path of least resistance is to the upside.
Absent a surprise in the jobs report or new news, I suspect we either consolidate here or trend higher. I would not get too excited, however, the sobering fact is Congress is back in session on Monday:( So starting Monday the party is over.
It will be the usual chaos as both parties jockey before the 2020 elections. The one thing the establishment will have in common in both parties is to try to get rid of Trump no matter what the cost.
The Democrats will not have to hide their intentions, as its natural for an opposing party to jettison the opposite parties, President. The establishment Republicans, however, have to walk a tightrope. Many are seeking reelection and Trump is the most popular President with the base than even Regan was.
To go against Trump is suicide politically for a Republican who has a strong primary challenge. So it will be the usual backstabbing underhanded dealings behind the scenes.
The best example of a tight rope walker is Grahm. All one has to do is go back and watch his questioning of Wray at the confirmation hearing. You would have thought Graham was in lockstep with McCain in removing Trump from office. And guess what, He was.
But the tide shifted and the Establishment Republican’s best-laid plans did not work out so well. And Grahm like a normal two-faced politician has now taken up the pro-Trump cause. Make no mistake, the only factor that has shifted is 2020 is rapidly approaching.
I started disliking Graham when he lead the charge against Bill Clinton and his removal from office. I was no fan of Clinton’s but I was also no fan of his removal at the hands of politicians that had done the same thing if not worse.
Graham, in my opinion, is the perfect example of what is wrong with DC. He takes money from Qatar, he obviously knew about the fake dossier at its inception, but now he says Trump and him are best of friends. That is DC.
I have no love lost for the establishment of either party. Both are corrupt beyond repair and both will not change.
So what is one to do? Its rather simple, the test for me is which party will do the least harm to the U.S. That has shifted from time to time. But at this point in time its clearly the Republicans that would cause the least harm.
The left has moved too far away from the center, for even many liberals. They have nothing but crazy ideas to run on as they have to spend 24/7 with fake attacks against a sitting President.
Now, they are not all to blame. Obama and Clinton set the stage. And no doubt it was tempting to come along for the ride. Afterall Clinton was a cinch to win in 2016. Should could not lose:) They had everyone in their back pocket, the intelligence agencies, the media, and the elites in both parties.
The one thing they did not have was the voter:) And they underestimated Trumps desire to win. Say what you will about Trump but he overcame all odds, with cunning and a sharp team. Voila, the silence was stunning when the results came in. And then it was sheer horror and panic in DC.
They had gone over the line, committed crimes against the government and the people, and it was 24/7 coverup time. And it is still going on.
I will write more about Trump in another post. But let’s relate this to the stock market now.
The only reason this market is where it’s at now is because of the Trump administration. They got tax cuts passed by sheer will, as Ryan was not a willing participant. The cut in the massive regulations has done its job.
And Trump keeps focusing on the economy. Its 24/7 Jobs. Record unemployment for everyone, job wage growth for the first time in a long time and manufacturing coming back. Cities that were becoming ghost towns are on the mend.
From an investing standpoint its simple. If Trump goes down in 2020, you will see a fall in this market that will startle you. You would not have thought it possible. The reason is we will be back to regulations on steroids. There will be tax increases, Attacks on the oil and fracking industries.
The repercussions will be enormous. So, be ready to either hedge your portfolio with a Trump loss or get net short. It will be a once in a lifetime investing opportunity. There is a lot of time between now and 2020. Watch the betting odds, not the polls.
I will have more of a strategy as we approach the elections.
The jobs report came out, and so far the market reaction after a short dip has been positive. It looks to me like we are going to test the SPY highs of 302.20 before we get any kind of correction. Of course, this is absent news from China or Congress:)
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