The Markets are getting hammered again today after a rebound yesterday. Most indexes are off 5%+
Now, I am still skeptical about all of this but if you are trading price you should not be long now. Mean reversion trading is off the table. Notice I have not made any mean reversion trades at all in awhile.
Sometimes when the markets get this volatile its best to just sit on the sidelines.
The new CDC numbers are out and the total deaths in the U.S. are now 97. Yes, you heard that right 97. Two more from yesterday’s report. To put that into perspective again, 100+ people a day die from the flu yearly.
Yet the media is in chaos mode, and it is affecting the markets and the population. It is panic everywhere, so, they have achieved their goal. Only 97 deaths through 4:00 PM yesterday. That is an official number. Not what the media is telling you.
So, we get 100 + deaths a day from the flu and you would think we were at 1000 deaths a day from this new virus.
Maybe I am getting cynical but it sure looks to me like this is another hoax. Sure there is a virus out there, but so far in the U.S., it is nothing. All the hysteria media and driven by politics.
In any event, we sit at 95 deaths, and everyone is insane. That is the extent of it.
It is interesting that no one reports the CDC numbers, its all speculation as to the worst-case scenario. Fear sells.
But, as I said now is not the time to be in the markets. I made a very short day trade this morning selling a put, for a quick profit and that was it:)
Looking at the political odds:
Biden 89/11 -2 Pts
Sanders 3/97 -3 Pts
Clinton 6/94 Unchanged
Clinton is right where I got in on the wager. Who would of thought a few weeks ago that Clinton would be twice as likely to get the nomination then Sanders:)
Dem VP Nomination:
Harris 30/70 -1 PT
Klobuchar 30/70 Unchanged
Abrams 13/87 -2 Pts
Warren 10/90 +1 Pt
I do not have any opinion at all on these.
Trump 46/54 +2Pts
Biden 46/54 -1 Pt
Right now a tossup. I like Trump at a tossup.
Matter of fact I just took 45/55 on Trump getting a 2nd term. Getting odds seems to have a lot of value to me.
Control of the Presidency: Dems 55/45 -1 Pt
Again I believe the value is in the Republicans
Control of the House:
75/225 Democrats: +2 Pts
I like the Republicans here. I rate it a tossup whether they regain the House.
Although the better wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”
Control of the Senate:
56/44 in favor of the Republicans Unchanged
Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 80/20 Unchanged from where I placed my wager taking 4 to 1
That is where we are at now. MLB is still set to start on May 1st. I will keep everyone updated. By then perhaps the death toll will hit 300. This is the most destruction the media has done since it has been in existence if you ask me.
But, I am not an expert, I only observe and draw my own conclusions.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks