How are the markets holding up with all this political turmoil? Will this last?

How are the markets holding up with all this political turmoil? Will this last?

Markets are gapping up slightly this morning 30 min before the open.

Of note, Financials up, Metals even, TLT down.

Slightly positive premarket bias.

I have one trade left of the swing trades I made the other day. At this point, it would not take much of a rally to signal an exit to the trade.

Today I plan on looking for gap continuation setups if breadth is right early. On my list is ETFC, HSIC and XLF. Typically when I have baskets like this I lean toward the ETF as they tend to be more reliable.

On the political odds front, it appears my observation regarding Moore and Strange was correct. Although it is not over. They go into a runoff next month. But Moore easily got more votes than Strange. This is an indication to me that Establishment Republicans are in big trouble come 2018. September gives a further indication of what is in store for 2018.

Not much new otherwise on the political front. Unless something changes, I am working on the premise that 2018 will be a defeat for the Dems and Establishment Republicans, with gains for non-establishment republicans.

I know that does not sit well with many, however, my analysis is strictly analytical and devoid of my own personal political beliefs.

So if I am correct you can fade all establishment republicans that have a strong primary challenger. The odds have not yet reflected the reality of what is going on. For instance, Ryan is 8 to 1 to win the primary. That to me has a lot of value. Strange is now down to even money. My guess is he should be a 5 to 1 dog right now.

So you get the idea that they are way undervalued. You will not find this EV in sports betting. The difficulty is finding a place to get down on these. But there are a few sites that do have these odds.

Also for those of you that are new here, I post the political odds as politics directly affect the markets. So once you have an idea what the true odds are on these you can then attempt to figure out what affect this might have on the stock market.

Some are easily figured out while others are very subtle. But they all have some implications for the stock market.

I will post any trades I make today on my private twitter feed @rickjswings. It is a private feed and is free.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


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