The markets are off about 6.5% as I write being as low as over -10% and rebounding to less than -5%.
The panic is real my friends. And it has spilled out over into the stock market. The media have finally done its job. For how long remains to be seen.
I have some small positions on right now and have been making income trades on Thursday. Swing trades are out of the question until things settle down.
Even the large traders are getting dusted in this environment.
I have been waiting for the new CDC numbers to come out as they indicated that at noon Monday through Friday that would have updated numbers on their site.
But as with most government agencies, they have nothing posted yet this morning.
But as I have said the Death toll from Coronavirus is the only significant number. The last report was a whopping 41 deaths on March 13th. And the last I saw reported was around 60 deaths. With the panic, you are seeing you would have thought the death toll was 10,000 by now and climbing.
My son even called yesterday, we talked and I gave him my opinion. His comment was “what about Italy”? The death toll there is 2000. The US has 3,000+ deaths a month from the ordinary flu.
That is 100 + deaths a day from the flu. 60 deaths and the panic is something most of us have never seen before. The cable news pundits are in panic mode. Most are manufactured, but level headed ones like Tucker is in panic mode.
But my favorite was not, Trish Regan. She always was a truth-teller on Fox Business. One of the best in the business. And they take her off the air for this:
Now, it just so happens that this is exactly my opinion of the situation, But Cable news, if you are not joining in the panic, you are gone.
That is what are news has come down to. Join the herd or you are gone. media matter, a left-wing hit squad, was bragging about being instrumental in having her pulled.
George Orwell said it best ” In Times of Universal Deceit —- Telling the Truth is a Revolutionary Act.
Those are the times we are in right now. Anything outside of groupthink now is condemned. They will have the truth-tellers cowering in fear. As they spew their propaganda, causing havoc and panic.
This has been going on ever since Trump was elected. First, it was the Russia Russia Russia hoax, then the 25th amendment hoax, next to the fake leak stories that came out daily, then the Ukraine hoax.
Now they had to do some maneuvering to get that done. As the Whistle-blower state is clear. But that did not let them get in the way. Atkinson changed the definition of a whistle-blower and away we go. All contrived, and abetted by the press, leading to a frenzy, resulting in a star chamber impeachment proceeding.
Then it gets to the Senate and when it was clear the Senators were not going to have any part of it the NYT comes out with the fake Bolton transcript story.
Only two Republican Senators bought it and Trump was acquitted. Shortly after that Bolton came out and said it was all a publicity stunt.
I only go through this to illustrate that what we are seeing now is a continuation of the Get Trump movement at all costs. Nothing more.
Sure there is a virus. Trump is on it. But there are only 60+ deaths last reported.
Moving on to some betting.
I found a wager this morning that I could not believe. On predictit.org they had the odds of a recession during Trump’s first term at 4 to 1.
Off the cuff based upon the number I look at each weekend, I would have made the line 7 to 5 against a recession. But here it’s 4 to 1 in favor of a recession.
I have been off before, but not by this much. So I took the 4 to 1. We are nowhere near a recession right now. Not even close. Panic yes, recession no. Interest rates are now 0. The feds are flooding liquidity into the markets.
My guess is this is all going to backfire on the Dems. Trump is coming out Presidential and in control. He got the Fed to lower rates, which he has been wanting for a long time, and this will pass in about a month or so.
When the death toll does not skyrocket, people will come to their senses and Trump will be the stronger for it. The media have become a non-factor in US society.
The only thing lacking is Justice. That remains to be seen if Barr will start doing his job. Some sharp people seem to think its coming but I am having some doubts. I guess we will have to wait and see on this one.
Remember, there is no % in panic. No matter what the circumstances panic will make it much worse.
Rudyard Kipling said it best:
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream – and not make dreams your master;
If you can think – and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with wornout tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings – nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run –
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And – which is more – you’ll be a Man my son!
It was true when he said it, and its true today.
Stay safe from the fools out there, as there are many.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Skype : riccja
