Markets off over 2.5%, Short Put Trades Analysis, Flynn, Grenell, special elections, House pork bill, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Wedn morning.

Markets off over 2.5%, Short Put Trades Analysis, Flynn, Grenell, special elections, House pork bill, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Wedn morning.

The markets reversed to the downside on Tuesday and this morning we are going to get a sharp gap down of a bit over 2.5% in the SPY, DIA and QQQ while IWM is gaping down 4.5+%.

@CL is up 5% TLT +1% Vix.x is -20%

This has the makings of a panic move to the downside today. The only positive numbers you can glean from these is that TLT is not up bigger and Crude is positive. That may make a difference. But today is a day to be very careful entering the markets in the morning.

I have no swing trades on at the moment and am concentrating only on my short put sales that I make on Thursday with a 2-day expiration. I had my first losing week two weeks ago. Last week there was not much to choose from in my morning scans however I did find 1 trade that was an easy winner.

So far I have had 97 trades with a win rate of 89.69% and a profit factor of 5.62.  Now on the losing week two weeks ago two options were exercise which I sold the next Monday at a loss.

So gross gain after commissions on the short puts were $20,304.00. The two stocks I sold on Monday had a loss of 1764.50.  Adding the two up I have a net gain after commissions of $18539.50.

The profit factor with both is 4.01. Anything over 2.5 is exceptional.

The updated graph is above with the net results from the trades.

The one thing to note is the absence of much of a drawdown on these trades!

One thing I am doing differently now is I am sending these trades out via Slack.

You can get these trades along with any swing trades I make for free until baseball season starts. Right now that is shaping up to be around 7/1. At that time I will be activating all subscriptions that are on pause.

To get these trades for free until then all you need to do is :

  1. Go to my website: rickjshandicappingpicks.com
  2. Use the PayPal dropdown menu and sign up for the monthly subscription
  3. These all come with a 3-day free trial
  4. I will immediately suspend your subscription so you do not get charged
  5. I will then send you an invitation to join my slack channel where I send the trades.

In addition, you are free to ask any questions on slack at any time on any subject.

As far as the geopolitical landscape since I last posted its been more of the same. Some of the highlights have been,

  1. The DOJ has moved to dismiss all charges against Gen.Flynn. But in an unprecedented move, the Judge is allowing Amicus Curiae briefs by outside parties. This is not only unprecedented but contrary to the Federal rule of criminal procedure.

How this turns out will be at least more delays, with an appeal if the judge jumps the shark on this. I do not expect that, however in this charged political environment who knows with any certainty.

2. Grenell has released transcripts that have shown the Russian proceedings were a hoax from day 1. The news is more is coming regarding the unmasking and other subjects.

The Obamagate conspirators have been caught and we will see if there is accountability. Durham reported is ready to drop the hammer soon.

 

3. In two special elections yesterday for the House congressional seat a Republican has won Wisconsin and leads by 12 pts in Ca 25. That is an ominous sign for the Democrats in November. At this point logically I see no way they keep the House.  I have already taken 4 to 1 on the Republicans regaining the House, and plan on fading each one of the dirty 30 once lines are out.

4. The House has proposed a 3rd three trillion-dollar stimulus bill that should be dead in the water in the Senate. In normal times not 1 item would be approved by the Senate or the President. It is filled with pork and ideological liberal wishlists. In other words a complete waste of time. I suspect that is the reason we are seeing the sell off this morning.

Leave it to Congress to cause as much damage as humanly possible on the American people.

Now let’s look at the political odds:

 

Dem Nominee:

Biden 80/20  -2 Pts
Sanders  2/82  +2 Pts
Clinton 7/93  +2 Pts
Cuomo 3/97  No Change

Looks about right. I still have some doubts Biden is going to be the nominee:) Make no mistake the Dems still can choose whoever they want.

Dem VP Nomination:

Harris 37/63   +8 Pts
Klobuchar 18/82 -4 Pts
Abrams 8/92  +2 Pts
Warren 13/87  No Change
Masto 8/92   No Change
Whitmer: 7/83 -1 Pts

I have no opinion on who is going to get the VP nod. Although I see no one on the list that can help Biden.

Presidential winner:

Trump 49/51 No Change I have a small amount of equity on my wager getting 45/55
Biden 44/56  -1  Pts

Clinton 5/95  +5 Pts

 

Getting back close to even money right now.

Control of the Presidency: Dems 53/47 +3 Pts

Again I believe the value is on the Republicans

Control of the House:

78/22 Democrats: No change( I took 3 to 1)

I like the Republicans here. I rate it a tossup whether they regain the House.
Although the better wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”

Control of the Senate:

51/49 in favor of the Republicans -7 Pts

I actually think the Republicans could lose the Senate. Collins has self-destructed, although they will pick up Alabama. But in Georgia establishment, Republicans are making the same mistake they made in Alabama in 2018. Loeffler is damaged goods with insider trading. Collins, however, is a cinch if he gets the nomination. But the establishment is pulling out all stops to defeat him in the primary.

Add that to some of the policy-making decisions of the Republican Senate and they are not very popular. They only have a 3 person advantage in the Senate. So, I view the Senate race right now as a tossup, only because the establishment Republicans are making bad decisions.

I would still bet on the Republicans but the much better wager is taking the odds in the House for value.

Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 95/5+5 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1 Right now it is all going to depend on the reporting numbers as its a very technical definition.

The best wager of the year will be fading the dirty 30 in the House. They are all incumbents, and all will most likely be +odds. So you only need to go 50% to make money. I cannot imagine not hitting 60%+ on these.

That’s it for today,

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Skype:riccja

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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