A nice start to the week with the market taking a nosedive. Almost all of it is related to the coronavirus and the implications. Only a small part is related to the impeachment proceedings as they are going very well for the President.
The only caveat is that the Senate Republicans, as usual, seem bent on self-destruction with their obsessive desire to call more witnesses. As expected Romney is leading the charge. One has to ask, how many times with the Republicans let Romney destroy their party? Human nature being what it is, most likely it’s never-ending.
The Republicans, as usual, are afraid of their own shadow. Collins being the prime example. My prediction here in the middle approach is going to cost her the Senate seat in 2020. Without Trump supporters, she cannot win. So she is either throwing the election intentionally or she is not the brightest bulb in the bunch.
The RNC or America First should assure the voters a choice in the primary. But right now there is no one running against her. Rona is not doing her job. Considering she is related to Mitt that should come as no surprise. She sits on twitter all day and does little to nothing to prepare for contingencies like Collins who is putting her Senate seat at risk.
Graham is a different story entirely. He does have a primary challenger, a Trump supporter, and it would be a shame if SC gives Graham another six years.
And it goes on and on. Establishment Republicans with a few exceptions are no different than their Democrat counterparts.
By the way, I expect the Senate Republicans to fold and turn this into a circus, with calling new Witnesses. Everything Dershowitz said went over their head. Our political system is broken beyond repair at this point.
Back to trading:) I put on some short term trades in stocks that I thought might show a quick profit in biotech, specifically related to virus research. The trades have been very profitable with some very solid gains on the first day. I took my profits in one trade with a quick 30% gain on the same day.
I am sitting at almost a 50% gain in another of the trades. I send out all my trades to subscribers of my sports handicapping service as a value-added feature.
I also have a short term swing in MOO. It is a mean reversion trade and is hovering around breakeven right now.
A lot has happened since we last looked at the political odds, so let’s take a look this morning and see where they stand:
Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 11/89 -1 Pts (This is the one to watch) Was at .07/.93
I took the 9/91 a few days ago. I laid it off yesterday at .10 for a 10% gain. After the Parnas news did not move the markets I decided it was time.
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 91/9 +1 Pts (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs
Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having lost any edge they had a month ago. (If Trump is not at the head of the party the Republicans have virtually no chance of keeping the Presidency or the Senate, they will lose all 3)
Control of the House after 2020: Dems 71/29 -1 Pt ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet. A better wager will be to bet against every incumbent house member that voted to impeach in 2020 that reside in states that Trump carried. That will be around 30 wagers. You will probably get +odds on most on the open, and I cannot see losing over 50% with the potential over winning over 60% of them. This is probably the best wager that will come around in a long time.
Control of the Senate after 2020: 69/31 Republicans. -2 Pts ( slipping a bit) A reflection of some Senate Republicans like Collins not sticking behind the President. It is political suicide to not support Trump, yet for whatever reason, some feel the need to do it.
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 48/52 -3 Pts
Warren: 4/86 – 1 Pt
Biden: 18/82 -3 Pts
Buttigieg 2/87 -4 Pts
Sanders 26/74 +3 Pts
Bloomberg 11/89 +4 Pts
Clinton 2/98 -1 Pt ( She is fading fast)
These are pretty meaningless right now the way the Democrats pick their candidate. Essentially, whoever the party leaders want the party leaders get. And they do not want Sanders. My guess is a brokered convention and a new name appears. I would say the odds are 50/50 that the Democrat nominee is not on the list of candidates right now.
Several new lines of interest:
Romney vote to convict: 23/77 -1 Pt
Collins Vote to convict 17/83 +3 Pts
Sasse Vote to convict: 6/84 -3 Pts
Murkowski vote to convict: 20/80 +2 Pts
Jones Vote to convict: 62/38 Unchanged
Manchin vote to convict: 47/53 -5 Pts
Senate GOP vote to convict Trump: 0 is 72/28 +10 Pts
1 is 12/88 +4 pTS
2 is 9/91 +1 pT
Romney, of course, leads the odds on the most likely Republican to vote to convict. Machin has become a toss-up.
A reasonable wager would be to bet Machin does not vote to convict. You get slight odds, and if he goes that way he is toast in 2020. I do not see him voting to convict. I looked this morning to wager on this but the liquidity is very light. So I am legging into the wager and laying anything under 55/45.
Another interesting wager is Bolton Senate Trial testimony by 3/31. Odds are 47/53 against. This is a tough line. I was hoping to get somewhere like 2 to 1. At a tossup, there are too many variables to wager on this.
One more wager I like is Which party will in Virginia. The odds are 76/23 in favor of the Dems. With the gun issue front and center, it would not surprise me to see the state go for Trump in 2020. The resolution of this wager is 10 months away, so I typically do not make wagers that far out. But I see a lot of value in this one.
Watch the conviction odds every day to get an idea of where things are at. It is very unlikely they get the votes needed to convict. However, the Senate is a snakepit. Do not be surprised if this turns out closer then you think. If the odds start getting close to 3 to 1 against conviction its time to start paying attention.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
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Have a great day trading:)
RickJs Handicapping Picks