Markets, recession fears, Usmca odds, and chaos. My thoughts.

The stock market has had a solid upswing since the end of August with the SPY gaining 15 points or so. In addition, the markets are right at the highs. A bit strange for a recession:)

The odds of a recession the next year or so are below 50% with the most pessimistic of reliable predictions. The range is 46% to virtually no chance. So again the media is wrong. But of course, they knew that when they started spinning it.

If you want a reliable, objective view of the markets each week, is probably the best you will find. You will be a step ahead of most if you read that each week.

This morning about 30 min before the open the markets are just below break-even. TLT is +.50% @CL is -1.5% and Vix.x is -.76%. If this configuration stays the same a gap fill trade would be a high probability trade this morning.

The big news today is it is Fed day. The consensus is that the Fed will cut rates by 1/4% today. The announcement comes out at 11:00 PST. What the market will be watching is anything different than expectations. A 1/2 pt cut and off we go to the downside and no cut the exact opposite. In addition, the language will be watched as to what the future might look like.

My guess is we get a 1/4 cut, with Powell being not so generous in the outlook for future cuts. This, of course, will set off a firestorm from the White House. How the market reacts is not so clear as my view is what the expectations are.

I would be very cautious after the announcement since the last 2 hours of trading tends to be very weak on a Fed day. I do not plan on taking any swing trades before the announcement and will consider selling some of the swing positions I have.

On the home front its madness as usual. I am getting used to it. I started watching some of the House judiciary meeting yesterday and had to turn it off it was so ridiculous. And then we have the USMCA. The odds are 2 to 1 against it being passed by the end of the year. I would lay the 2 to 1 without hesitation.

The on the international front we have the bombing of the oil fields in Saudi Arabia, trade wars, Brexit and much more.

These are interesting times we live in right now. Its a shame the repercussions are so monumental if things go wrong. Otherwise, you could watch and enjoy the chaos.

Heading into week 3 in the Westgate NFL Supercontest I am 5-5. I have been far worse:) But it time to get a nice run going.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


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