Markets strong today (so far), A very High % option sale trade for Thusdays, CDC corona virus update, good news for treatment, updated political odds+ new wager. My thoughts for a Thursday.

Markets strong today (so far), A very High % option sale trade for Thusdays, CDC corona virus update, good news for treatment, updated political odds+ new wager. My thoughts for a Thursday.

The Stock market is 300+ and the Nasdaq 200+ three hours before the close this today.

I placed 5 short put sale trades on this morning that expire at tomorrow’s close.

All have a 30% cushion from the strike price.

This is a trade I have been working on for a while now. It seems that Thursday is the best day to put it on. As you only have two days of exposure. Ideally, you want a 20% cushion. All of my trades today had a 30% cushion between the price and the strike price. So that means the stock would have to fall 30% before tomorrow’s close for me to be at risk of losing money.

There are several things you have to have for this:

1. A good option screener, I have two I use
2.A good method of evaluating the support zones for the stock
3.An account that allows you to trade these on margin. Typically you only need at most 20% of the full price if exercised.
4.An ability to think fast if you need to adjust the trade, typically at noon on Friday.
5. A broker where the commissions are no more than $10.00 on a 10 lot.
So far I have been almost 100% on these trades. And usually send out 5 or so to my handicapping subscribers as part of the package.

You can generate $500 to %1000 a week being conservative with these. The reason is the option premiums are very high, which allows you to be the casino. The annualized returns can be amazing.

All my subscribers have their subscription on pause right now until the start of the MLB season. Which by all accounts right now is May 1. If you sign up now, consider the monthly with the 3-day free trial. I will immediately put your subscription on pause, and you will get these trades for free until MLB baseball starts. Then you can either continue or quit. It will be your choice.

The new CDC death number came out through 4:00 on the 18 this morning and the total is 150. That is a 53 jump from yesterday. The numbers are still very low considering the hype. But another few weeks should give everyone a little more idea. I still stick with my thought that this is nothing near what it is portrayed to be. Considering, 100+ people a day die of the flu and nobody bats an eye.

One of the encouraging things that came out of the press conference this morning is that a common Malaria drug is most likely effective in treating the coronavirus. Assuming they have any numbers at all to support this, this should be the first line of treatment for anyone that has this illness. It has been studied and around for many years. The risks of taking it are minimal. And there is little to no downside as I see it. If it were me I would automatically go on a regime of this if I caught it.

If this does work out that way expect this emergency to be over rather quickly. The malaria drug is easy to produce and easy to distribute. The only risk is the pharmaceutical companies putting up roadblocks to sell new products. I know that is machiavellian thinking but considering the history of these companies, it is something you have to consider. They have the most powerful lobby in DC.

Updated political odds:

Political odds:

Dem Nominee:
Biden 89/11 Unchanged
Sanders 1/99 -2 Pts
Clinton 5/95 -1 Pt

Clinton is right where I got in on the wager. Who would of thought a few weeks ago that Clinton would be 4x as likely to get the nomination than Sanders:)

Dem VP Nomination:

Harris 30/70 Unchanged
Klobuchar 27/73 -3 Pts
Abrams 12/88 -1 Pts
Warren 8/92 -2 Pts

I do not have any opinion at all on these. Harris, however, would be a mistake. Biden already has California. It would be a waste of a VP pick.

Presidential winner:

Trump 45/55 ( Right where I made my wager on Trump)
Biden 48/52

Right now a tossup. I like Trump at a tossup.

Control of the Presidency: Dems 56/44 +1 Pt

Again I believe the value is in the Republicans

Control of the House:

75/25 Democrats: Unchanged ( I took the 3 to 1 this morning)

I like the Republicans here. I rate it a tossup whether they regain the House.
Although the better wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”

Control of the Senate:

59/41 in favor of the Republicans +3 Pts

Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 83/17 +3 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1

That is where we are now. MLB is still set to start on May 1st. I will keep everyone updated. By then perhaps the death toll will hit 300. This is the most destruction the media has done since it has been in existence if you ask me.

But, I am not an expert, I only observe and draw my own conclusions.

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Skype: riccja

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