The markets are solid today although the swings are crazy. But as of 10:30, we find ourselves at +400 on the Dow +75 for the SP500 and +220 on the Nasdaq.
All solid numbers. TLT is off 1.94% Crude is off 1.9%
This is a mixed bag and I expect a lot more volatility. On the plus side, the White is and the Fed is opening up the floodgates. Unprecedented money is flowing to keep liquidity into the markets.
Unlike the Obama stimulus packages, this money is going where it should be going. That is a big plus.
The downside risk is far from over. With the media creating panic and putting out false information 24/7 it is going to make it very hard for the public to settle down.
Myself, I still do not see what the problem is, aside from another virus that we have dealt with over the years. From all indications so far the fear is overblown to a degree of monumental proportions.
Now everyone has their opinion about the justification of the fear. It most likely depends on what news source you rely on. If you listen to CNN mostly you are about ready to slit your wrists. Even Fox is jumping the shark.
But if you simply take a look at the CDC numbers, and think a bit, it is obvious that so far it is nothing to even be worried about.
Sure if your older and have a compromised immune system you are at risk. But you’re at risk for many things. The ordinary flu can easily do you in.
If you are healthy, regardless of your age, the odds of dying are so low that they are not even worth mentioning.
The CDC numbers came out this at noon for deaths through 4:00 pm yesterday. The grand total in the U.S. is 75. 6 more from yesterday.
Considering 100+ people a day die from the ordinary flu in the U.S. and no one bats an eye, these numbers are nothing.
Yet listen to the news and you would think the world is coming to an end. I have never seen news so detached from reality as it is now, except perhaps for the Russia Russia Russia hoax.
Mentioning that beauty some news came out yesterday that the DOJ dismissed the case brought by the Mueller team against the Russians.
The one that had an indictment that read like a Clancy novel, implicating Trump. There was no there there.
It’s pretty much the last nail in the coffin that the Russians did anything outside the norm to influence the 2016 elections. 40 million for nothing is what it comes down to.
Lives ruined, many millions of dollars in attorney fees generated for those poor souls that had to be interrogated. And all they got were a few process crimes. Which, looking at those may well be thrown out also.
On the political wager side I have pending three wagers right now:
I took 4 to 1 that there would not be a recession in Trump’s first term. I already have a 10% equity in the wager. I also when I wagered against Sanders, took Clinton and Bloomberg.
I cashed on my Sanders wager laying it off at almost 100% profit and sit with small wagers on Bloomberg at 8 to 1 and Clinton at 20 to 1.
I will most likely lose those last two. But with Clinton anything can happen:) Any uncertainty like her announcing or a rumor will give me a 100% profit in no time.
Political odds:
Dem Nominee:
Biden 87/13 +3 Pts
Sanders 4/96 -4 Pts
Clinton 6/94-1 Pts
Clinton is right where I got in on the wager.
I view that wager as like betting on a fixed prize fight. If it’s fixed, then Clinton can get it. If not I will lose a small amount.
Dem VP Nomination:
Harris 31/69
Klobuchar 30/70
Abrams 15/85
Warren 9/91
I do not have any opinion at all on these.
Presidential winner:
Trump 44/56 -2Pts
Biden 47/53 +2 Pts
Right now it’s pretty much a tossup. I like Trump at a tossup.
Matter of fact I just took 45/55 on Trump getting a 2nd term. Getting odds seems to have a lot of value to me.
Control of the Presidency: Dems 56/44
Again I believe the value is in the Republicans
Control of the House:
73/27 Democrats: -1 Pt
I like the Republicans here. I rate it a tossup whether they regain the House.
Although the better wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”
Control of the Senate:
56/44 in favor of the Republicans +1 Pt
This is closer then you would think I would like it. The Senate Republicans have done everything they can to lose seats. They will pick up from Jones in Alabama, But Collins is toast in Maine. Her last press conference will most likely sink her.
So instead of 54, they are back to 53. A pretty close situation for the Senate to me.
No sports for me right now. from handicapping sports every day of the week for 16 years down to no games:) But last I heard MLB will be starting late, the estimate right now is May 1st. But it is flexible.
I will start up day 1 with my overnight picks and totals as soon as it gets going.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Skype : riccja
